This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/JPAnalyst on 2023-08-22 14:33:11.
The chart below shows the number of wins (orange) and losses (teal) in games that were decided by three or fewer points or overtime in 2022. The circle in the middle represents their net wins. For example, KC had 6 close wins, 2 closes losses, so their net is 4 wins.
I have this data tracked back to 2012. The Vikings +5 has occurred about 2.5% of the time (9 out of 352). It’s not the record in my time frame, that would be +6 by the 2016 Raiders who went 12-4 with a 6-0 record in 3-pt games. The following year (2017), the Raiders won 6 fewer games at 6-10. The dreaded regression that nerds like me love to throw around to make us sound smart, is certainly something that has to be considered when a team is at either extreme, but the small sample of data I have shows it’s no guarantee when teams have overachieved on close games.
On aggregate, the eight other times when teams ended up at +5 the average change in winning percentage the next year was a decline of .124, which equates to -2.1 wins with a 17-game schedule. But when you look at all eight teams, only half declined (two increased and two had the same record).
The other end of the scale where the Broncos and Raiders had a net of -4 wins in close games, has occurred slightly more 4.0% of the time. The record in my time period is -5 which happened three times. Positive regression here has been more likely in the past than negative regression was for the Vikings example of -5 net wins.
On aggregate, the 12 other times when teams ended up at -4 or worse the average change in winning percentage the next year was an increase of .180, which equates to +3.1 wins with a 17-game schedule. Of those 12 teams, 10 improved the next year, one declined (2021-22 Colts) and one had the same record.
The last point I want to make which doesn’t stand out on this chart is about the 2022 Bills. They went 3-3 in close games which is a pretty normal thing to do. But what that means is that they went 10-0 in games not decided by 3 points or OT.
The number of teams since 2012, other than the Bills, that have gone undefeated in games not decided by 3 points or OT, is zero. That’s it, that’s the list.
Their record in close games had the biggest negative impact on overall record in the NFL as a result of their dominance in games outside of 3-point games. Something to keep an eye on. Maybe we shouldn’t sleep on the Bills this year. I’m going to do a follow-up post looking at how the close game records impacted a team’s overall record.