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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/rnilbog on 2023-08-22 15:46:50.

From 2006-2013, at least one SEC team made the BCS National Championship game every year, and won 7 of them in a row before a close loss in 2013. This led to the perception that the SEC was far and away the best conference in the country. But what if they were just lucky? How fragile was the SEC’s dominance? The BCS system made the margin for error very slim. What if the SEC had only made one championship game in that span? It’s actually fairly easy to do. You only have to change one play each season. Sure, in reality there would probably be butterfly effects that would make this completely different, but this is a magical scenario where I can just change the play and not have to deal with the consequences.

2006

The reality: After USC was upset by UCLA in the final week of the season, there was lively debate over which team should play undefeated #1 Ohio State in the National Championship. Some said Michigan, whose lone loss was in an epic season finale against the Buckeyes, should get another shot. But ultimately, Florida, whose lone blemish was a 10-point loss to Auburn, got the nod. They would then surprise everyone by steamrolling Ohio State, and being the first of seven consecutive teams from the SEC to win a national championship.

The change: This one is actually very easy, as I don’t even need to change a play. I can just change a ruling. After pulling within one score against Oklahoma with just over a minute left, Oregon attempted an onside kick. Despite an Oregon player touching the ball before it went ten yards, and an Oklahoma player coming out of the pile with the ball, the refs awarded Oregon with possession of the ball. If this had happened in the age of review, there’s no way they…hang on, this was in fact the first year of review, and the ruling was upheld despite the video clearly showing that Oklahoma should have been awarded possession. Oregon would go on to score the winning touchdown, but with our change on the ruling, Oklahoma knees it out and wins the game.

The aftermath: It’s hard to imagine, but there was a time when the SEC wasn’t viewed as highly as it is now. With the controversy over which 1-loss team should play Ohio State, Oklahoma would probably have looked more appealing than Florida. With the Sooners playing Ohio State, Florida would drop to the Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame. The world also would have been deprived of the legendary Boise State-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl, though with Les Miles coaching LSU, there may have still been some wackiness in Glendale that night,

2007

The reality: In one of the most chaotic seasons ever, the only thing certain going into Selection Sunday was that Ohio State would be #1. As many as seven teams had an argument at being #2 and getting a shot at the Buckeyes. LSU ended up being selected, as both of their losses were in triple overtime - “undefeated in regulation” as it were. In an eerie repeat of the previous season, the Tigers upset Ohio State and made America start to believe in the fortitude of the SEC.

The change: It might seem obvious that the change should be to the Backyard Brawl, but there wasn’t one particular play that swung that game. Instead, we’ll go to the biggest point spread upset in a season of wild upsets. A hapless Stanford team was a 41 point underdog to the juggernaut that was USC. However, on 4th and goal with less than a minute left, the Cardinal pulled in a touchdown to take the lead over the Trojans, providing USC with one of two losses they would eventually suffer on the season. I’m gonna make the ball fly just a bit higher so that Stanford turns it over on downs and USC survives.

The aftermath: USC and Ohio State would play for the National Championship (ew). LSU would end up in the Sugar Bowl against Hawaii. From there on it gets a little murky what would have happened, as Georgia vs. Illinois in the Rose Bowl just seems…off.

2008

The reality: 2008 was a bit of an underrated mess. At the end of the season, four BCS conference champions each had one loss. There were also two non-champion BCS teams with one loss each, and not one, but TWO non-BCS teams that were undefeated. Ultimately, #1 Oklahoma and #2 Florida played, with the Gators winning their second title in three years.

The change: Penn State’s only loss was against Iowa, who kicked a 31-yard field goal with one second left to beat the Nittany Lions. Let’s make them shank the field goal so that Penn State goes undefeated instead.

The aftermath: Undefeated #1 Penn State plays #2 Oklahoma for the National Championship. Florida plays Urban Meyers old team, Utah, in the Sugar Bowl. Tim Tebow graduates without a ring. Ohio State would take the Big Ten’s spot in the Rose Bowl against USC, and Alabama would likely play Texas in the Fiesta Bowl.

2009

The reality: Five teams finished the season undefeated, including three from BCS conferences. Ultimately, it was a fairly easy pick - Alabama and Texas, with the Crimson Tide winning Nick Saban his first of many championships at Alabama. Big East champion Cincinnati went on the Sugar Bowl, while TCU and Boise State played in the “separate but equal” Fiesta Bowl.

The change: The Third Saturday in October, played on the fourth Saturday in October, saw Lane Kiffin’s Tennessee give Alabama a much harder game than expected. With a chance to win the game at the buzzer, the Vols attempted a field goal, which was blocked by Terrence “Mount” Cody. In my reality, the ball sails through the uprights and gives Alabama the loss.

The aftermath: It seems most likely that Cincinnati would get the nod as the undefeated champion of a BCS conference, but TCU was also undefeated and had garnered quite a bit of favor with voters. Either way, Alabama gets stuck in the Sugar Bowl, and it’s hard to say exactly where everything else would have fallen.

2010

The reality: This was one of the more straightforward years of the BCS. Auburn and Oregon both went undefeated, though they had both had some close calls, and the Tigers won a thrilling title game. TCU was also undefeated, with a victory over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.

The change: The first half of the Iron Bowl was a shock to many fans. Alabama, who uncharacteristically already had two losses on the season, came out swinging against undefeated Auburn, and before anyone knew it, the Tide were up 21-0. And it looked like it was about to get worse, as Mark Ingram was speeding towards the endzone. However, Auburn forced the fumble and it went out of the endzone for a touchback. Auburn managed to come back and win with a late touchdown, but in my reality where Ingram doesn’t fumble, Alabama scores and their lead becomes insurmountable.

The aftermath: Mountain West champion TCU gets a shot at Oregon for the National Championship. Auburn falls to the Sugar Bowl, where they play Ohio State.

2011

The reality: The controversy at the end of this year cause the College Football Playoff to be created. LSU was the obvious #1, but there was debate over whether their opponent should be Oklahoma State, who had an overtime loss against Iowa State, or Alabama, who the Tigers had already beaten in an epic game earlier in the season. By an extremely small margin, Alabama was chosen, and in the rematch, the Tide blanked LSU 21-0, with the Tigers failing to even cross the 50 until late in the 4th quarter.

The change: This one is tricky. Since there were two SEC teams that made it in, there’s no one play that can keep them both out. The best I can do is reduce it to one. At the end of the Iowa State game, Oklahoma State missed a field goal that would have won it (though looking at the replay, it may have actually gone through). I’m gonna just push the ball a bit inside so that they win the game and stay undefeated.

The aftermath: LSU gets the SEC’s sole championship appearance of this span as they play Oklahoma State. Alabama ends up in the Sugar Bowl against either Michigan or Virginia Tech, and other probably goes to the Fiesta Bowl against Stanford.

2012

The reality: At the end of the regular season, Notre Dame stood as the lone undefeated team. One-loss Alabama got the nod, and dominated the Irish in the championship to earn Nick Saban his third national championship in four years.

The change: Against Stanford, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota broke off a long run along the sideline. He looked like he was going to go all the way, but because De’Anthony Thomas didn’t bother to look back, a Stanford defender tacked Mariota. Oregon failed to score on the drive, and ultimately lost in overtime, their only loss on the season. I’m going to make DAT turn his head, see the defender, and lightly tap him enough to prevent the tackle.

The aftermath: This win would have given Oregon the division championship, and we’ll just assume they beat UCLA in the conference championship and went on to play Notre Dame for the national championship. Alabama gets to play in yet another Sugar Bowl, this time against Louisville, causing Florida to slide into the Fiesta Bowl against Kansas State. Grumblings start in Tuscaloosa about Saban’s inability to win the big one.

2013

The reality: Jameis Winston led Florida State to a dominant undefeated season. Auburn, however required some miracles to make the title game. A tipped pass against Georgia and a missed field goal return against A…

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