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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Prudent-Cheetah1656 on 2025-02-10 21:51:32+00:00.
Is anyone aware of good data that tracks this? Connelly’s weighting for returning production is available, but I find other data on the subject to be lacking. And his, while good, is meant as a modifier to make his own model more robust, but if used alone has pitiful predictive capabilities.
With all major conferences now having released their schedules, I want to do some w/l projections and conference picks.
Hypothesis 1: Teams with high returning production and high production will have greater resistance to regression toward the mean.
Hypothesis 2: Teams with high returning production and low production will see stronger regression toward the mean than low returning production/low production.
Hypothesis 3: Defensive returning production is less predicive of statistical movement than offensive returning production.
Any insight on this subject would be most appreciated.