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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/uggsandstarbux on 2025-01-03 17:02:57+00:00.

As teams begin looking forward to the 2025 offseason, it’s worth taking a look backward to observe the behaviors of teams when it comes to decision-making in arguably the most important chair on the team: the general manager. Let’s look at a brief history of the GM hiring cycle and try to predict the upcoming hiring cycle as Black Monday looms on the horizon.

Part I: Where do GMs come from?

Over the past 10 years, 42 GMs have been hired to lead 25 different teams. These men come from all different types of backgrounds, from Omar Khan, who spent over two decades in football administration roles before taking over for Kevin Colbert, to John Lynch, who had never so much as held a scouting assistant role before he joined Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Today, I’m taking a look at who teams have hired in the past to try to understand who teams are looking for in the future.

Excluded from this analysis are 4 GMs, 3 of whom are HCs that took over GM roles (Bill O’Brien, Chip Kelly, Ron Rivera) and the 4th of whom is Howie Roseman, who was technically never fired from the Eagles. This leaves us with 38 GMs.

The average GM was hired from a 9-8 team. 39% of GMs were hired from a team finishing with at least 10 wins – the same percent as those who came from teams with 8 or fewer wins.

23% of GMs came from teams with 6 or fewer wins in the previous season. Of these 9, 4 were external hires – Telesco, Robinson, Mayhew, and Beane. Telesco is the only external hire to be awarded a job coming off a season with fewer than 6 wins.

Jon Robinson is an interesting case. He is the only external hire who came from a team that had not made the playoffs in their 3 most recent seasons. Yes, during Jon Robinson’s 3-year tenure as the Director of Player Personnel – his only 3 years in Tampa – the Bucs went 12-36 with a best record of 6-10.

10 of the 39 GMs (26%) were internal hires. These hires vary extremely widely in quality. On one end, you have the Eric DeCostas and Brian Gutekunsts of the world – they had been groomed for years to take over the role. And on the other extreme you have guys like Sashi Brown and Marty Hurney – both of whom were meant to be figures holding a to-be-filled vacancy before they accidentally filled those vacancies themselves. While there is certainly merit to hiring somebody you’re familiar with (you intimately know their strengths, weaknesses, communication style, and leadership philosophy), you can also be blinded by comfort.

7 of the 39 GMs (18%) had already held a GM title in the past. Pending the conclusion of Tom Telesco and Trent Baalke’s active tenures, none lasted more than 4 seasons. The most “successful” of these is probably Scott McCloughan, who went 17-14-1 in two seasons for Washington before being fired, allegedly due to his issues with alcoholism. Although a case could be made that Trent Baalke’s playoff appearance in 2022 makes him the best GM of this group.

The most interesting story amongst these 7 goes to Marty Hurney, in my opinion. Hurney was the GM of the Panthers for a decade. He drafted Cam Newton, Thomas Davis, and Luke Kuechly, assembling much of the core of the 2015 NFC Champion team. He was fired in 2012, making way for Dave Gettleman (who would himself get hired to another GM job after being fired from Carolina) before being brought back in 2017 to serve as the interim GM. Funny enough, he was hired in part to help the team identify and hire its next full-time GM.

The average age of GMs when hired is 46. The median age is 45. Just 3 GMs were hired who were 60 or older: Marty Hurney, Mike Mayock, and Dave Gettleman.

The youngest GM hired was Andrew Berry – and it isn’t close. Berry was only 33 when he took over the Browns front office. When Berry turned 10, Joe Hortiz had just started working for the Ravens as a personnel assistant.

The oldest GM hired was Dave Gettleman. By the time the Giants hired him, Gettleman had already spent nearly 2 decades in NFL front offices at a director level or higher.

The average GM hire had worked in an NFL front office for 18 years. The average GM hire also has

  • 9 years at a director level or higher
  • 8 years with a title including "Scout/Scouting"
  • 5 years with a title including "Player Personnel"
  • 1 year with a title including "Football Operations"
  • 1 year with a title including “Football Administration”

2 GMs had never worked for an NFL front office (Mike Mayock and John Lynch), and another pair were not directly hired from an NFL job (Marty Hurney and Scott McCloughan).

Including Lynch and Mayock, 4 GMs had spent less than a decade in NFL front offices (Brett Veach and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah).

24 of 39 came from a scouting background (at least 40% of their front office career has “scouting” in the title). This includes Mike Mayock, who never scouted for an NFL team but served as the NFL Network’s draft expert for multiple years.

5 had never held a scouting role – Khan, Adofo-Mensah, Mayhew, Hurney, and Beane. 3 of these men came from a Football Ops background. Khan came from a Football Admin background and is the only GM hire with more than 3 years of football admin experience. 9 came from a player personnel background.

With the exceptions of Mayock and Lynch, nobody was hired without experience operating at the Director level.

This is an imperfect science. A “Director” role in one organization could have the same responsibilities as a “Senior Coordinator” or “Front Office Exec” title in another organization. Jobs are also fluid. GMs like Adofo-Mensah have often talked about how they had the opportunities to learn and practice multiple different roles in a team before becoming a GM.

What does this tell us about the next wave of GM hires? The most likely GMs are:

  • In their mid-40s
  • First-time GMs
  • External hires
  • From a scouting background
  • Experience in a Director level role or higher
  • Likely coming from a winning team, but not necessarily

Part II: Who are the candidates?

The Most Likely

Here are the candidates that check all of the boxes from the final list in Part I. These are candidates in their 40s with extensive scouting experience from winning organizations.

  • Chiefs Asst GM Mike Borgonzi has spent the last 15 years with the Chiefs in various roles, primarily in the scouting department. During that time, the Chiefs have won 3 SBs and brought in key players like Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, and Chris Jones. In his role as Asst GM, Borgonzi maintains his lead on the scouting department while also adding veteran free agency to his plate. Borgonzi is a scouting traditionalist, working his way up the pipe until opportunity calls. Now firmly in his mid-40s in the middle of a three-peat campaign, this could be his chance to finally land a GM role.
  • Steelers Asst GM Andy Weidl was brought in to be the number 2 to Omar Khan when he took over that role in 2022 after interviewing for that job himself. Prior to that, Weidl had built his career as a scout for Baltimore and then as the Director/VP of Player Personnel in Philly. Khan reportedly brought Weidl in specifically to rebuild the trenches in Pittsburgh. The Steelers then drafted 7 linemen in their next two drafts, including two first rounders. And the results have been strong, with rookies Zach Frazier and Mason McCormick turning into solid starters in year 1. Weidl’s name will likely circulate this offseason, if it hasn’t already.
  • Commanders Asst GM Lance Newmark is in his first year with his team – a bit different from the rest of the names on this list. His name has already been floated around as a running mate for Ben Johnson, and it makes sense. Newmark spent 26 seasons with the Lions before joining Adam Peters’ regime this season. He leads the personnel and scouting departments for both pro and college players, and he has had a heavy hand in Washington’s remarkable turnaround from NFL bottom-feeder to playoff team. He has extensive experience as a scout and also receives a lot of credit for building the scouting systems that Detroit implements today.
  • Eagles Sr Dir of Scouting Brandon Hunt is on the younger side at 42, but he fits the mold of the likeliest GM candidate well. He spent most of his young career as a pro scouting coordinator for the Steelers before taking on college scouting in Philly in 2022. Since then, he has ushered in a very srong trio of draft classes for Philly, with starters emerging in Jordan Davis, Cam Jurgens, Nakobe Dean, Jalen Carter, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean. His time in Pittsburgh saw the team bring in key veteran players like Joe Haden, Steven Nelson, and Tyson Alualu to fill out the roster.
  • Packers VP of Player Personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan is the son of former NFL and college coach Jerry Sullivan. He has spent his entire pro career working for Green Bay, beginning as an intern during the 2003 training camp. He has grown up in the Packers draft system, a system that has brought in All Pro starters over the years including Davante Adams, Corey Linsley, David Bakhtiari, and Clay Matthews, among others. He has played a vital role in the shape of the organization in a post-Rodgers world, building one of the youngest rosters in the league while continuing to dominate on the field.
  • Bills Dir of Player Personnel Terrance Gray has interviewed for the Raiders and Chargers GM jobs last y…

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