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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/redwings1340 on 2024-12-26 19:00:36+00:00.

As we all know, preseason rankings are terrible. Three years ago, I decided to test how terrible they were, by starting an annual preseason rankings analysis! My method of grading the preseason polls is pretty simple, I just take a look at the preseason ranking and give each rank 0, ½, or 1 point, depending on how close each team was in the final ranking to where they were in the preseason ranking. This is clearly a very objective ranking, and is not subject to personal bias in any way whatsoever. If you think I’m wrong, then… no, I’m just kidding, feel free to tear me to shreds in the comments section, obviously this is all subjective and I’d love to hear where you disagree with me!

In 2021 and 2022, the preseason rankings were as terrible as you’d expect them to be, as they got a 46% and 48%, respectively. However, in 2023, the preseason polls were surprisingly accurate, as they got a 60%, a significant improvement! Are the preseason polls getting better, or was last year a mirage of relative accuracy? Considering Florida State was in the preseason top 10, I’m guessing this year will not be good. However, there’s only one way to find out, so lets go!

Part 1: They are who we thought they were

Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas (preseason 1-4, currently 2, 6, 1, 3): Wow. Uh… ok, maybe the media did know what they were talking about! The preseason poll is coming out of the gate STRONG this year! Georgia and Texas played in the SEC title game. Ohio State and Oregon would have played in the big 10 title game if the Buckeyes hadn’t tried to win an imaginary toughness contest against my Wolverines. These are probably the four most talented teams in the nation.

Notre Dame, Penn State (preseason 7-8, currently 5, 4): Wow. The top six teams in the nation at the end of the season were in the top 8 teams in the preseason. I’m genuinely impressed. Notre Dame had a completely inexplicable loss to Northern Illinois, but has otherwise destroyed an overmatched schedule and saved us from debates about an undefeated Army joining the playoffs. Penn State beat everyone they were supposed to beat and lost to the teams they weren’t supposed to beat. On a side note, if Army hadn’t played Notre Dame, or had lost a super close game to Notre Dame, how would the committee have handled that? Imagine we had an undefeated Army team that the committee was forced to put in the playoffs, then we saw them get blown out by Navy before the playoffs began. Would the committee have changed the playoff teams, delayed the playoff reveal, or would the playoffs have been locked in before that game? Asking because I’m genuinely curious, we were pretty close to that situation happening.

Clemson (preseason 14, currently 16): I was afraid for a second that the preseason polls just got everything right, but after the top teams, things start getting less accurate. Still, Clemson was expected to be a talented team with major flaws that stopped them from competing with the best teams. That’s exactly what they were. Clemson somehow backed their way in to winning the ACC and made the playoffs, but they weren’t a threat to win the whole thing. Points to the media for calling this.

Texas A&M (preseason 20, currently unranked, AP 26): Congratulations Texas A&M fans!!! You have the distinct honor of carrying the longest streak of being ranked in the preseason polls while being unranked in the final AP poll of the year! This has happened every single year I’ve done these rankings, which makes Texas A&M still carry the mantle as the most consistently overranked team of the last four years! Still, I will give some credit though, this wasn’t a collapse by any means, and I actually put them as properly ranked, because the difference between 20 and 26 is not that large. They also got very close to making the SEC title game, so they are a talented team. Still, their streak continues, and I find it hilarious how close this team was to breaking it.

Part 2: Not terrible, but the AP missed some key details that would change the way the team performed

Alabama, Ole Miss (preseason 5-6, currently 11, 14): We’re starting this section off with two of the most inconsistent teams in the nation. At their best, they are title contenders. They both beat Georgia and South Carolina. They both destroyed some overmatched SEC teams. They also both have multiple inexplicable losses to worse opponents, and it’s these losses that kept them out of the playoffs. Tennessee, Notre Dame, and Ohio State only had one inexplicable loss to a theoretically overmatched opponent, but these teams had two, and it costed them. When expanding to the twelve team playoffs, people were worrying about whether the regular season even mattered anymore, and for these two teams, it absolutely did. Consistency matters, and these teams have nobody to blame but themselves for missing out on the playoffs.

Mizzouri (preseason 11, currently 19): The Tigers weren’t bad, but they weren’t a real playoff threat. They got destroyed by A&M and Alabama, got beaten by South Carolina late in the year, and didn’t really have any fantastic wins to make up for it. Their best wins are Boston College, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Auburn, and Arkansas. This wasn’t the year they were hoping for.

LSU (preseason 13, currently unranked, AP 31): Hold on, am I seriously putting LSU in the same category as Mizzouri? Yes, I am, because there’s not much separating these teams. In nonconference, Mizzouri barely beat Boston College while LSU lost last second to USC. They both got blasted by A&M and Alabama. LSU somehow lost to Florida, but also has wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina. I think this gives us a good example of not all conference schedules being the same, and I think Mizzouri is probably a four or even five loss team with this schedule. LSU definitely didn’t play up to the expectations of a rank 13 team, but this is also a good case study into how these superconferences create vastly different strengths of schedules within the conference. Not all SEC schedules are equally tough.

Tennessee (preseason 15, currently 7): After that first round playoff game, it’s looking very possible that Tennessee took advantage of Alabama being ridiculously inconsistent to finish with a better record than they probably should have had on talent alone. If they lose that game to Alabama then the preseason poll is spot on with both Tennessee and Alabama, and the world makes more sense. However, they beat Alabama fairly, they earned the playoff berth, and they overperformed this year. Great year from the Volunteers, and their playoff spot was more than earned.

Miami (preseason 19, currently 13): What a year from Cam Ward! That offense was sensational! They started the season with a beatdown of Florida, had some very close and lucky calls along the way, then fell back down to earth the last couple weeks. This team came very close to the playoffs, and Cam Ward was an electrifying heisman contender. The team overperformed and was very fun to watch!

Kansas State (preseason 18, currently unranked, AP 29): The Wildcats weren’t bad. They went 1-3 against ranked big 12 teams, with a bad loss to Houston in there too. This wasn’t the season they were hoping for, but it also wasn’t a complete collapse, a few games just didn’t go their way.

Iowa (preseason 25, currently unranked, 1 vote in coaches poll): Iowa finally found an offense this year! Kind of! Their passing offense was still 131st in the nation, but they had a very respectable 199 rushing yards per game. Sadly, the improvements here did not result in a better record, as they went 8-4 with losses against Michigan State and UCLA. They also didn’t have a chance to win the Big 10 West, so they couldn’t lose by 40 in the big 10 title game this year. Without Brian Ferenz and Tory Taylor, Iowa went from the poster child of Big 10 football to becoming just another boring team. Sadness.

Part 3: These teams were nowhere near as good as their ranking

Michigan (preseason 9, currently 7-5): So apparently losing JJ McCarthy and replacing him with someone who is not a good quarterback really hurts. A talented defense can only do so much when the offense can’t throw. Apparently that’s only good enough to beat Ohio State.

Florida State (preseason 10, currently 2-10): Uh… Um… So remember last year, we all assumed that with so many opt outs, Florida State didn’t try against Georgia? I think this team was actually just that bad without their NFL players last year. How good were those players who left??? This has gotta be among the worst teamwide collapses in NCAA history from one year to another. They isn’t even a Nebraska style 2-10 with a bunch of late game collapses, this is a bad 2-10. They were dominated game after game, and their one Division 1 win was a really close game! This team had nothing this year, it’s genuinely shocking.

Utah (preseason 12, currently 5-7): Remember how we were billing week 3’s Utah vs Oklahoma State as a potential big 12 conference title game preview?

Oklahoma State (preseason 17, currently 3-9): Yeahhhhh, so, uh, that didn’t happen. Apparently n…

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