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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/albusdumblederp on 2024-12-23 17:36:47+00:00.
I say this as someone who was initially pretty skeptical of this take, since human intuition is notoriously bad with stacking probabilities.
But based on the moneylines (roughly):
Texas was expected to win 5 out of every 6 times against Clemson (83%) and is expected to win 4 out of every 5 against Arizona State (80%) - giving a total chance of advancing to the Semifinals 2 out of 3 times (67%).
Penn state was expected to win 3 out of every 4 times against SMU (75%), and is expected to win 4 out of every 5 times against Boise State (80%), giving a total chance of advancing of about 60%.
Meanwhile, Georgia & Oregon are both roughly 50/50 in their Quarterfinal games, with Oregon actually being a slight underdog.