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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/chronoquairium on 2024-12-06 04:38:56+00:00.
(Tested with NFL Playoff Machine.)
If the Lions lose to the Bills and win the rest, they get the 1 seed based on conference record.
If they lose to any other team other than the Bills, but win the rest including the Bills, they get the 1 seed based on strength of victory. Note: It is much harder to test strength of victory tiebreakers as then would need to determine every single other game. So this one is not as definitive.
Even if there are ways to make the strength of victory tiebreaker flip, the Lions can afford to lose the upcoming Bills game while still controlling their own destiny for the 1 seed.
(Another note: if they lost the Packers game and won out the rest, the Eagles would get the 1 seed.)
EDIT: If the Lions lose to the Vikings while the Vikings win out, the Lions also still get the 1 seed due to winning percent between common opponents - the Lions beat the Rams who the Vikings lost to, and the Vikings never faced the Bucs who would be the only other team the Lions lost to.