Math reminder: it's extremely unlikely that a non-bye seed is better than a bye seed

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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/dfphd on 2024-11-24 16:41:50+00:00.

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I keep seeing people say “oh, the #5 seed might be better than the 1 seed because you play Boise State instead of Georgia”.

As a reminder - winning one 50% matchup is equivalent in probability to winning two 70% matchups.

Let’s pick the most common example right now - which is #1 seeded Oregon having to beat UGA vs. the number 5 seed Ohio State having to beat e.g. Arizona State and Boise State.

Not only is it unlikely that OSU would be THAT much more likely to beat BSU and ASU than UGA (20% is a lot), but also an extra game is an extra opportunity to suffer major injuries.