There is a 5.77% chance that every power conference is won by a newcomer.

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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/ThatOtherSwimmer on 2024-11-17 15:35:09+00:00.

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Looking at the Vegas odds (via Fanduel) as a proxy, we can calculate the odds that each Power 4 conference is won by a team that just joined it:

ACC: SMU (41.7%)

B10: Oregon (46.5%)

B12: Colorado (51.2%) + Arizona State (21.7%) = 72.9%

SEC: Texas (40.8%)

Multiply the odds together (which we can do by independence of events), and you get 5.77%, or roughly 1 in 17. Obviously, 4 out of the 5 teams above were in power conferences prior to realignment, but it’s pretty crazy how many teams have hit the ground running in new leagues.