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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/practicalist on 2024-11-17 13:00:22+00:00.
QB Score QBS – Comparative QB Ratings
This article will focus on how QB Score is calculated and why it is different. The two current popular methods of rating QB play have been Passer Rating and QBR. Passer Rating is the 4 part, draconian formula that almost no one on the planet could quote correctly, and fewer still could perform all the calculations off-hand needed to produce the rating.
NFL 2024 - QB Score Ratings & Rankings
QBR involves dividing up Expected Points based on QB play. The cool thing about QBR, in theory, is that the QBR rating is the % chance the QB/Team has of winning the game(all other things held equal/constant). To even begin calculating QBR you need to be able to calculate Expected Points for the offense. If you would like to read what ESPN has to say about their own QBR formula, you can do here: ESPN QBR Explanation.
The thing Passer Rating and QBR have in common is that the rating is independent of other QB play. Both are calculated in regard to the statistics the QB produced. Nothing in the calculation of Passer Ratings or QBR is comparative to other QB play or stats. Only the final rating itself is comparable, but even then it is not dependent on any other QB’s rating or play. This is where QB Score differs.
If you are interested in more QBS articles:
2024 QB Score Ratings & Rankings
Why QB Score?
QB Score, QBS, is derived from comparing the stats of all quarterbacks to each other and then scoring each QB in 14 categories. To do the scoring, QBS uses Standard Deviation units. Essentially the better a QB is compared to all his fellow QBs in that metric, the higher the score he receives for that metric.
The argument for using QBS is pretty clear:
- It is the most intuitive of the QB rating scales with an average of virtual zero and the smallest range.
- QBS is the easiest QB rating metric to calculate
- QBS is the only comparative QB rating system that takes into account the QB’s performance compared to their peers.
- Quantifying the QBS score to a descriptive adjective on the QB play is simple due the inherent ranges in its scoring system.
QB Score Metrics
Here is the process for calculating QBS. All NFL QBs are scored in 14 statistics:
- Completion %
- Passing Yards / Game
- Intended Air Yards / Pass Attempt
- Completed Air Yards / Game
- Completed Air Yards / Pass Attempt
- Intended Air Yards/ Pass Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Pass Attempt (Inverse)
- On Target %
- Touchdown %
- Interception % (Inverse)
- 1st Down Success %
- Sack % (Inverse)
- Pressure %
- Rushing yardage / game
- Scrambling yardage / game
You’ll notice that 3 statistics have (Inverse) next to them. This simply means when calculating, a lower value is better. It is better to have a low INT% and Sack% so the stat/score is inverted. At the bottom of every metric you can see the average and the size of 1 unit SD range.
Upon the release of the first version of QBS, there was suggestion that it was not rewarding more mobile quarterbacks for their play extending, and play creating talents. Essentially that QB Score was too focused on the actual throwing of the football as opposed to scoring the position of quarterback. A good way to think of it is that QBS would measure and rate all of Tom Brady, but only 3/4 of Lamar Jackson.
This is a fair criticism and something that needed to be tweaked if QBS was going to rate quarterbacks, and not just the ability of quarterbacks to throw the ball. However, it had to be limited. Even in seasons when Lamar Jackson ran for 1000 yards, he was still passing for about 3000 yards and these are the most exteme cases of rushing yds vs passing yds for quarterbacks.
A fair estimate is probably more like 500 yards rushing per 3000 yards passing is the sign of a mobile qb. As a ratio this means about 1/7 (500/3500) of the QB’s production is rushing, 6/7(3000/3500) is passing. 1/7 translates into roughly 14.3%, and for extremely mobile quarterback it could range as high as 25%(Jackson in 2019 & 2020).
Thus the ability to rush and avoid pressure should count for about 15%-20% of a quarterbacks value. There are now 2 out of 14 metrics strictly dedicated to a quarterbacks rushing ability, or 1/7. Considering the Pressure % metric is intended to reward quarterbacks under pressure, it is also recognizing the value of a mobile quarterback. Thus we come to that 15%-20% area.
Ideally, QB Score would be flexible and robust enough to identify the best all around quarterback of that year whether the QB was a statuesque Tom Brady, or a Tasmanian Devil like Lamar Jackson.
2024 QB Score Pass Score Rankings
New Metrics in QB Score
Pressure %
The Pressure % metric has been added to balance out how much time each quarterback has had to produce their statistics. QBs who are facing a high % of pressure will score higher, and quarterbacks facing minimal pressure will score lowest.
The logic for including this revolves around protection scheme and line play. If a qb faces pressure a smaller % of the time, they should, all other things held equal, produce better statistics. They are not being rushed, or running for the lives as much. They are sitting in a clean pocket, scanning the field, and can step into throws.
Likewise, a quarterback that is under pressure a high % of the time is most likely having to make quicker reads, scramble, and work from dirtier pockets. Again, all other things being equal, a qb facing a high % of pressure will typically produce worse stats than a qb facing a low % of pressure.
A modern mobile quarterback is going to be helped by this metric as they will be more capable of producing positive stats after being flushed. They simply deal with pressure better than a statuesque type quarterback.
If a team wants to Max Protect a quarterback to mimizize pressure %, that is fine, but the quarterback will be expected to produce better stats when Max Protected then when not Max Protected. Simply put, if a qb is not performing better with extra blockers, it would be better to send the blockers out as receivers. Their value as extra protection is zero.
Rushing Yardage / Game
This one is as straightforward as it gets. Quarterbacks who rush the ball effectively will score high in this metric. Kirk Cousins will not. This stat measured the yardage gained on quarterback runs.
This metric has nothing to do with throwing the football, but has something to do with playing modern QB in the NFL. The only small issue with this metric is the large rushing yardage range between the best of the running QBs and the Pocket Passers. But using StDev units, the damage of a single metric with an unusual range is always limited.
Scrambling Yardage / Game
This metric rewards the quarterback who can do damage once a play breaks down. PFR tracks scrambles and avg scramble yardage so a little multiplication give us the total scramble yardage for each quarterback.
This metric also works against the pure pocket passer, but surely a QB who can make a play out of nothing should be rewarded. This metric can work to the advantage of QBs who never have planned runs, but become dangerous if let out of the pocket.
2024 QB Score Rush Score Rankings
Intended Air Yards – The Gunslinger Metric
Every metric you see above you may have seen before or know already with the exception of two: the metrics involving Intended Air Yards. First, Intended Air Yards is simply the measure of how far the QB threw the ball on all attempts, whether complete, or incomplete.
For example, a QB attempts a 10 yard pass but it is incomplete. Intended Air Yards is 10, but Completed Air Yards is zero. If the pass was complete and the receiver ran for 6 yards after the catch: Intended Air Yards is 10, Completed Air Yards is 10, YAC is 6, and Passing Yards are 16.
I am calling this the Gunslinger metric, and here is why it is included. Ideally you would love to have a QB willing, and able, to push the ball downfield. So let’s reward the ones who do in QBS. All other metrics being equal, we would love it if our QB threw for 9 intended air yards every attempt as opposed to 6, because all other things being equal(including completion %), we would move down the field faster.
But all other things are not equal…Completion % decreases as intended air yards increase(its harder to complete a longer pass than a shorter one in most cases). The ball literally takes longer to travel 9 yards as opposed to 6 yards giving defense more time to react. Most importantly, most NFL defenses are set up to minimize long pass completions in exchange for…
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