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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/empurrfekt on 2024-11-14 14:36:24+00:00.
Tired of hearing about who goes to Atlanta with a bunch of 6-2 teams? Let’s embrace real chaos with more than half the conference tied at 5-3.
So what needs to happen?
- Florida beats LSU
- Arkansas beats Texas
- Auburn beats Texas A&M
- Kentucky beats Texas
- Vanderbilt beats LSU
- Vanderbilt beats Tennessee
- Texas A&M beats Texas
- LSU beats Oklahoma
- Arkansas beats Missouri
- Alabama splits with Oklahoma and Auburn
- Ole Miss splits with Florida and Mississippi State.
- If Missouri beats South Carolina, the must also beat Mississippi State
If this were to happen, the Tennessee/Georgia winner would be 6-2. The loser would be tied with Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, and the Missouri/South Carolina winner.
So who goes to Atlanta as the 2nd place team?
Probably Vandy. Yes, really. The first tie-breaker that would yield results is conference record of conference opponents. The only teams that could possibly advance from this tiebreaker are Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, and Vanderbilt. If Missouri beats Mississippi State, Vandy almost always either wins this tiebreaker outright or ties with Alabama and/or LSU, both of whom they would have the head to head over. The only exception is if the Bama split is a win over Auburn and a loss to Oklahoma and Georgia beats Tennessee. In this case Bama would go.
But what if Mississippi State beats Missouri? In that case, all 4 teams have a path. For convenience, I’m going to reference Bama’s results as whether they win the Iron Bowl with the Oklahoma result being to opposite, and the same with Ole Miss, the Egg Bowl, and Florida.
Alabama’s path is to win the Iron Bowl, Ole Miss lose the Egg Bowl, and Georgia beat Tennessee. The tiebreaker would eliminate everyone but LSU and Bama has head to head.
Arkansas’s path is for Bama to lose the Iron Bowl, Ole Miss to lose the Egg Bowl, and Georgia beat Tennessee. The tiebreaker would eliminate everyone but Vandy, and Arkansas would have a better record against common opponents.
LSU’s first path is Bama to win the Iron Bowl and Ole Miss to win the Egg Bowl. The second path is for Bama to lose the Iron Bowl, Ole Miss to win the Egg Bowl, and Georgia to beat Tennessee. Both paths would allow LSU to win the tiebreaker outright.
Vandy’s path is for Bama to lose the Iron Bowl, Ole Miss to win the Egg Bowl, and Tennessee to beat Georgia. The tiebreaker would eliminate everyone but LSU and Vandy would have head to head.
There are two scenarios that have not yet been covered. In both, Ole Miss loses the Egg Bowl. Then, either Bama loses the Iron Bowl and Georgia beats Tennessee or Bama wins the Iron Bowl and Tennessee beats Georgia. All four teams would have opponents conference records at 33-31. It would then move to the next tiebreaker which depends on Sports Source Analytics. I have no clue who that would produce, but my guess is Bama would have the advantage.