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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/jakewhitacre on 2024-11-04 04:04:41+00:00.
There’s been plenty of discussion about the pros and cons of divisionless conferences. I’d like to present an unusual, but plausible scenario that’s on the table with four weeks left to play: Half of the teams in the SEC could finish with a 6-2 record in conference.
- Georgia (Currently 5-1): Lose at Ole Miss. Win vs. Tennessee.
- Texas A&M (Currently 5-1): Lose at Auburn. Win vs. Texas.
- Tennessee (Currently 4-1): Lose at Georgia. Win vs. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.
- Texas (Currently 3-1): Lose at Texas A&M. Win vs. Florida, Arkansas, and Kentucky.
- LSU (Currently 3-1): Lose vs. Alabama. Win against Florida, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma.
- Ole Miss (Currently 3-2): Win out vs. Georgia, Florida, and Mississippi State.
- Alabama (Currently 3-2): Win out vs. LSU, Oklahoma, and Auburn.
- Missouri (Currently 2-2): Win out vs. Oklahoma, South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Arkansas.
Would it take a lot to go exactly right? Of course. Would it take a lot of upsets? Not at all. Out of the 25 games here, only three games here have less than a 50% chance of happening. According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, the only games that require upsets are Auburn over A&M (38.1%), A&M over Texas (24.8%), and Missouri over South Carolina (34.3%). The predictor actually has Ole Miss as a slight favorite over Georgia (53.9%), but the Bulldogs are a 2.5 point favorite in Vegas right now.
If you’re a fan on chaos, this is the peak scenario. But even if this doesn’t all play out, it should make it clear there are a lot of ways we could see some convoluted tiebreaker scenarios, especially if either Georgia or Texas slip up.
EDIT: It should be noted Vanderbilt can also finish 6-2 in conference play and force some unique tiebreaker scenarios, but there’s no way to make an 8- or 9-way tie happen with Vanderbilt winning out.