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The original was posted on /r/soccer by /u/SneakyBradley_ on 2023-08-06 14:58:49.
In the early knockings of the Premier League, survival was almost assured if you hit the magical 40 point barrier – nothing was getting through that protective layer.
Whilst you could survive with less (as the below will show), 40 points on the board was seen as a guarantee, a certainty that nothing at all could go wrong.
Claudio Ranieri famously banged on about only aiming to achieve 40 points with Leicester in the season which they won their fairytale Premier League title.
In fact, there have only been three occasions where a team dropped to the second division having finished on 40 points or higher.
Times have definitely changed however, and the points total ‘required’ to stay in the Premier League has gotten lower.
There are several factors which may contribute to this, but the overwhelming appears to be that the disparity in quality and expenditure between those at the very top and the very bottom. To show the most dramatic changes, we will split the Premier League into three separate ‘eras,’ starting from 1995 when the Premier League was reduced from 22 sides to 20.
These eras are:
• The Early Years (95/96 – 02/03)
• The Abramovic Era (03/04 – 16/17)
• The Neymar Transfer (17/18 – present)
The rising trend in transfer spend can be seen since Roman Abramovich’s takeover of Chelsea in 2003, and moreso since the season the transfer window ‘exploded,’ with the Neymar transfer in particular causing a surge of spending globally, and within the Premier League.
In the Early Years, Premier League total spend averaged around €100.81 million per season – less than some sides spend on a single player nowadays. Furthermore, from his arrival until Neymar moved to PSG in 2017, average Premier League expenditure was €829.89 million, and following the Brazilian’s transfer it jumped to a whopping €1989 million. Yes, lower – and even promoted – Premier League sides have more money to spend than ever nowadays, so do the big boys, and the competition for players is much more hostile at the bottom end of the table.
So now we have our parameters set, and the reason behind the segmentation, what do the numbers show us? What number is key to survival nowadays? And why is this number changing?
The new magic bullet
Before jumping into the data, we must highlight that the points you could have guaranteed survival with is important.
This is due to 40-point total, whilst not being the correct amount targeted, being seen as the golden ticket to the next season of Premier League football. This is always calculated as the 18th place team’s total, plus one, as this would assure survival and not rely on goal difference.
These findings show that across in the entirely of the Premier League, 36.18 points would have kept you in the league on average. More importantly however, they show that from the Early Years to the Neymar Transfer zone, the average required to stay up has dropped from 38.38 to 34.
The total change is therefore 4.38 points, or an 11.41% decrease.
Some other interesting points:
• The change from the Early Years to the Abramovich Era was 2.52 points less
• The change from the Abramovich Era to the Neymar Transfer was 1.86 points less
• The lowest total points that would have seen a side survive in the Premier League was 29 in 20/21, when Fulham were relegated with 28 points
• The same season also represented the largest gap between 18th and 17th place as Burnley survived with 29 points
• The highest total points that would have seen a side relegated from the Premier League was 43 in 02/03, when West Ham United were relegated with 42 points
• The most common points total that would have seen a side guarantee survival was 35, with 7 occurrences
Given the changing totals, the clubs at the bottom of the Premier League therefore need less and less points to survive and remain in the richest league in world football. In a simple world it looks like the league might be easier than ever to remain in, but in a complicated reality the truth is very different, and the challenge remains high as ever.
Why might this total be getting smaller?
The lower and lower total number of points required to survive can be put down to the sides towards the top of the table hoarding more and more points. They have a much higher share of the points that are on offer to them. Therefore, if the top sides are taking more and more points away from the bottom sides, the total goes down – simple stuff.
As you can see the average total of a top four finishing side was 73.56 points in the Early Years, but since the Neymar Transfer era this has risen to 80.33 – a rise of 6.77, so essentially two extra wins and an extra draw. With a small pool of points available throughout the season, these extra results make all the difference in deciding who stays up, and reduces the likelihood of teams facing relegation reaching the promised 4-point land.
In large part this is to their huge wealth as we discussed earlier. The teams who can spend the most do so on the best players available, the best coaches available, the best facilities, and importantly, the biggest wage bills.
Whilst yes, other Premier League sides are awash with cash nowadays, it is a typical trend that the sides that finish towards the top of the table have spent the most in the Premier League between then each year.
Let’s take teams that finished in the top four in each season versus the teams that finished in the bottom four each season and compare their spending. All values are displayed in EUR.
Click here to view the table which shows the expenditure differences across the Premier League eras.
A more detailed table can also be found here.
From the table we can see the disparity between top four and bottom four spending. In the Early Years, the bottom four sides spend 13.69% of the value the top 4 spent, this dropped much lower to 8.49% in the Abramovich Era before an increase back to 11.12% of spend in the current iteration of the Premier League.
Overall, this does show a trend of the gap being wider between the top sides’ spending and the bottom sides’ spending. Whilst it isn’t a massive difference, and hasn’t always been a widening gap, it does show how times change.
Top sides are also spending more and more on wages and I would recommend reading the book, Soccernomics, for more information on the importance of that. They say: “By far the best predictor of where a team will finish in the table is its wage bill: the team with the highest wages generally finishes top, and the team with the lowest wages bottom.”
Based on the full data set, we can learn the following interesting titbits:
• The side that spent the most in the Premier League finished in the top four 21 out of 28 times
• The side which spent the least in each season finished in the bottom four just 4 out of 28 times
• Being the bottom spending side doesn’t necessarily mean you will be relegated in that season, but often leads to relegation within the coming years
• Chelsea are the most common top spender in this time period, spending the most in the league on 10 occasions
• Blackburn Rovers and Bolton Wanderers were the most common lowest spenders, spending the least on 3 occasions each
Is it all about money? No, there are many differentiating factors, it just happens that money is likely the largest one.
You of course get teams that defy the logic and odds. Leicester City winning the league in 15/16 is one example, Newcastle United being relegated in 08/09 is one on the flipside, but by and large, those who a higher on the spending table, finish higher in the Premier League table and those who spend the least end up at the opposite end. Other factors can include, tactical ability, squad harmony, crowd support and much, much more. Ultimately though, if you look at the spending charts (and the wage bills if you’d like to go even deeper) and you’ll see the trend – it is not a coincidence.
Conclusion
Since the formative years until the modern era, the average number of points to survive has tumbled from not-quite-forty (38.38), to 34.
Whilst the total change might seem relatively small, when you only have a total of 114 points to potentially play with during the season, these margins make a massive difference. Having to pick up 4.38 less points on average per season could mean teams could more specifically prioritise certain fixtures than previously, which was typically a favourite of some managers.
Should spending trends continue, the gap is only likely to get larger and larger. With the top four sides earning an average of 46.33 more points than those at the bottom (a change of 11.14 points) and sides such as Manchester City gaining more and more points,…
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