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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/practicalist on 2024-10-06 11:03:33+00:00.
After week 3, I did a little write up on Aaron Rodgers: if there is a way to beat him, or slow him down. I came to one of the dumbest conclusions possible; That blitzing Rodgers might be the way to beat him in 2024.
Traditionally, Rodgers has beaten the blitz with almost arrogance. I say arrogance because he actually throws deeper passes against the blitz compared to when he isn’t blitzed. In the charts you will see that is his modus operandi year after year.
Then the Broncos came into Met Life and blitzed Rodgers 49% of the time on a rainy, wind swept field. Denver walking away with a 10-9 victory @ New York may give other teams a bit of film on Rodgers and the Jets OL.
Denver defense vs NY Jets Week 4
How much of this was weather, how much was Denver, and how much was Rodgers/OL would all be fair questions. But let’s take a look at Rodgers’ splits against the blitz and see if Denver was on the right track.
Rodgers 2018 -2024 Next Gen Stats
The chart above shows some of Rodgers’ basic and advanced metrics from 2018 -2024. 2022 is his “off year”, his last with the Packers. 2023 is missing because of injury.
The Same in 2024
- Completion % at 64.1%. In 2022 it was 64.6%
- EPA/DB is -0.05. In 2022 it was -0.04
- Passer Rating 92.9. In 2022 it was 91.1
- YPA is 6.6, in 2022 it was 6.8
- Blitz % faced is 28.9%, it was 28.1% in 2022
- QB pressure % is 26.7%, up from 24.5% in 2022
- Separation around 3.3 yards, down from 3.7 in 2022
The Unusual in 2024
- TD % is 3.9%. Down from 4.8% in 2022
- AY/Att is 6.1 yards, down from 8 in 2022.
- Deep % is 4.7%. This is WAY DOWN, from 14.2%
- Time to Throw is 2.52, down from 2.70
- Tight Window % up to 18.8% (ranked 5th).
Attempting to summarize the unusual leads one to the first obvious question; what is the status of Rodgers’ arm strength? He had a plus arm, but is it now merely average? Is the achilles not allowing him to drive into throws?(Cousins is still throwing off his front foot at times(to the tune of 500 yds) due to lingering achilles issues)
- Air yards per attempt of 6.1 puts him tied for 29th with Tagovailoa, and above Daniels. (Patrick Mahomes is 32nd at 5.1).
- Deep % of 4.7% ranks him 31st, tied with Mayfield(thru 4 weeks) & ahead of only Mahomes
- The 2.52 sec to throw makes him 4th fastest(tied with Daniels), behind Mayfield and ahead of Derek Carr.
- He has been the 18th most blitzed quarterback so far; slightly more than Josh Allen and slightly less than Bo Nix. However he was 28th most blitzed after 3 weeks, so Denver unleashed the blitz on him in their 10 - 9 victory in a rain soaked Meadowlands.
Rodgers Vs No Blitz
Aaron Rodgers vs No Blitz 2018 -2024
The chart above is Rodgers’ stats when NOT facing a blitz. From 2018 - 2020 if you didn’t blitz Rodgers, he would simply find the open man; no need to throw into tight windows. His tight window % was between 10% -12% and he ranked at the bottom in tight window throws. In the past few years his tight window % has risen to around 15% to just outside the top 10. In 2024 it has risen to almost 18%.
What is quite intriguing is that in 2024, when not blitzed, Rodgers is getting rid of the ball in 2.51 seconds with average separation of 3.3 yards. He is finding the open man and hitting him. The quicker throws may be the result of the lower amount of play action the Jets have used on plays Rodgers was not blitzed, a mere 14.4%.
However again we see a very low AY/Att at 6 and a Deep % of just 5.6%. Rodgers is not looking to go deep, or even intermediate when not blitzed. He reads the defense, identifies who is going to be open, and gets him the ball quickly, allowing the receiver to maximize yards after catch.
Rodgers vs Blitz
Aaron Rodgers vs Blitz 2018 - 2024
2024 Aaron Rodgers vs the blitz
Above we see Rodgers’ stats against the blitz. Historically he has destroyed the blitz. From 2018 -2021, blitzing him was to do so at your own peril. In 2022 the blitz worked against him, forcing 4 interceptions and a INT % of 2.6%. 2020 was another season he threw 4 INTs vs. the blitz, but he threw only 1 in 2021, and zero in both 2018 & 2019.
One of the oddities in the splits, is that Rodgers almost always tries longers throws against the blitz than when not blitzed. The only year when Rodgers AY/ATT were higher against no blitz was 2021. In every other year his AY/ATT is higher when facing a blitz then not.
The one stat that is interesting is the Play Action % (PA%). In 2020 and 2022, the years where he threw four interceptions vs the blitz, there was play action about 40% of the time. He used to force the ball a bit more against the blitz in 2018-19(20% -23%), then stopped forcing it as much from 2020 -2022 (12% - 17%).
In all the years 2020 -2024, the play action % when being blitzed has been near 40%. But there are some huge differences in 2024 statistics:
- QB pressure % against the blitz jumps to 35.7%. It is 28.7% on average in 2024, and 23% when not facing the blitz.
- Average separation is a mere 2.9 yards. The Jets receivers are not getting wide open quickly.
- Tight window % jumps to 21%.
2024 Rodgers Passing Line vs Blitz That DID NOT Cause Pressure - 18 / 27 139yds 2 TD 0 INT
Those numbers aren’t bad, but he is dinking and dunking, not dissecting the defense. If you told a team before a game this would be Rodgers final stat line I think almost every team would take it. The 2 TDs are from 10 yards and 2 yards, so again not daggers in a defense’s heart.
Rodgers vs Blitz That Did Not Cause Pressure
2024 Aaaron Rodgers vs Blitz that DID NOT cause pressure
Rodgers vs Blitz That Caused Pressure
2024 Rodgers Passing Line vs Blitz That Caused Pressure - 5 / 11 68yds 0 TD 0 INT 4 Sacks
This stat line is very pedestrian. Again Rodgers is throwing deeper against a blitz with pressure, but not doing significant damage while taking sacks.
2024 Aaron Rodgers vs Blitz That Caused Pressure
This may be one of the dumbest sentences I’ve written about the NFL, but I think to beat Rodgers in 2024 you need to blitz him. He is going to hit passes against it, but in 2024 they are of the short variety for the most part.
There are two things he has probably lost, arm strength and mobility. However, he has gained knowledge, wisdom, and anticipation. As opposed to a big armed gunslinger, he has morphed into more of cagey sniper, albeit carrying a rifle with limited range(or perhaps better to say, less range than it once had).
The times he has appeared mortal, or beatable, is when facing a blitz while caught in playaction. Add in the mix the fact that the Jets receivers do not appear to be able to gain significant early separation. So during playaction, you have Rodgers faking a handoff, turning around into a blitz(which most likely he knew it was coming and from where), and buying time to allow his receivers to get enough separation to fit in a tight window throw.
This is the best chance to get him to make an errant throw, or try to fit in a throw that a defensive back makes a good play on. If you don’t blitz him, he is going to find the one option out of his 4 or 5 receivers that has separation and can run after the catch. He basically knows what the defense is doing before they do it, so to allow him to sit in or just fire a quick pass out to the guy in a mismatch is inviting trouble.
If the Jets are going to run a high % of playaction passes, defenses may be best off sending an extra man downhill to either stuff the run, or get pressure if it is a fake. If the defenders are all where Rodgers sees they are, and knows where they are going to be, he is most likely to dissect the defense and beat it. By bringing in the randomness of a blitzer, particularly when his back is turned while doing the fake, you force him to make adjustments, while also forcing the Jets wide receivers to beat their man early.
Week 5 - Jets vs Vikings (London)
There is a good chance this post will be immortalized(can a post live in infamy?), because it is very likely Rodgers is going to get the chance to prove that I am a complete idiot today.
The good news for Rodgers is he won’t have to face the team that blitzes the most, Denver(46.3%), because he played them last week. The bad news is, he is playing the Vikings, and they are ranked 2nd in B…
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