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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/cyberchaox on 2024-10-03 00:56:49+00:00.
So I finally got around to making “the tier list” for this season–basically, a quick reference list of who everyone’s losses were to, tiered with undefeated teams at the top, teams whose only losses came to undefeated teams in Tier 2, and so on down the line. When a “circle of suck” forms, all of those teams end up comprising one tier, which will be located directly below the lowest tier containing a team outside the circle that beat a member of the circle. Usually, by the end of the year, the entirety of college football gets pulled into the circle of suck tier–and no, I don’t just mean “the entirety of the FBS” or even “the entirety of Division 1”.
The lowest-tiered member of the FBS at the moment without a transitive loss to an FCS team is Air Force, at Tier 16 nope never mind that chain does go into the FCS for a bit. Let’s try that again. The lowest-tiered members of the FBS without transitive losses to an FCS team are Bowling Green~~, New Mexico State,~~ and Western Michigan nope that’s wrong again, let’s say “the longest chains entirely within the FBS” since NMSU’s transitive loss to an FCS team is completely irrelevant to their tier placement (Montana State is undefeated including a win over New Mexico, who beat NMSU). The chains actually stay pretty close to each other for a long time: Missouri > Boston College > Michigan State > Maryland > Connecticut > Buffalo > Northern Illinois > Notre Dame > Louisville > Georgia Tech is the tier 10 team for all of them. Then we branch off, with BGSU and WMU following Georgia Tech’s win over Georgia State and Air Force and NMSU following their win over Florida State. For the former, it’s Georgia State > Vanderbilt > Virginia Tech and then branch off to VT > Marshall > WMU and VT > Old Dominion > Bowling Green. On the latter side, it’s Florida State > California and we branch again, California > Auburn > New Mexico > NMSU and California > UC Davis > Idaho > Wyoming > Air Force.
Air Force is not the lowest-tiered member of the FBS. Not even close. There are a few poison pills out there. Also sitting in Tier 15, and note that I only include lower-division teams if they have a transitive win over an FBS team, is Stony Brook, whose only loss was to Marshall. The three FCS members of Tier 16 are Campbell, Southeast Missouri State, and Stonehill–SEMO’s loss was to New Mexico State, the other two lost to Stony Brook. The lone member of Tier 17 is Western Carolina, having lost to Campbell and also a couple of higher-tier teams (including FBS NC State). The lone member of Tier 18 is Elon. The lone member of Tier 19 is North Carolina Central. The lone member of Tier 20 is North Carolina A&T. The lone member of Tier 21 is…Division II Winston-Salem State. The lone member of Tier 22 is Ohio Dominican. Tier 23 is a trio of teams with 1-1 records against each other: Bloomsburg, Fairmont State, and Seton Hill, the last of whom is the one who lost to Ohio Dominican. The lone member of Tier 24 is Edinboro, who lost to Bloomsburg. Tier 25 finally takes us back into the FCS, as Edinboro’s only win (yes, their *only* win, though their other three losses are to two unbeaten teams and a 1-loss team whose only loss was to one of those two unbeaten teams) was over FCS Robert Morris. Which then takes us to an *11-team* Circle of Suck: Wagner > Delaware State > Sacred Heart > Georgetown > Columbia > Lafayette > Monmouth > Maine > Merrimack > Bucknell > Lehigh > Wagner; Wagner was placed as the beginning and end because they’re the one who lost to Robert Morris, and of course, Tier 27 is where we run back into the FBS because Monmouth beat Florida International. And then FIU beat Central Michigan and Louisiana Tech, and CMU beat Ball State, Central Connecticut, and San Diego State; Ball State beat Missouri State, who beat Lindenwood and UT-Martin, and UT-Martin beat Kennesaw State while Lindenwood beat Eastern Illinois, who beat Indiana State, who beat Dayton, who beat St. Francis (PA) (as did Central Connecticut which is why they had to be included back on Tier 29), who beat Kent State. Tier 36. Kent State is on Tier 36, which means they’re 35 steps removed from an unbeaten team, except it’s actually more because some of those steps are partial circles of suck instead of single teams. In reality, the chain from the ranks of the unbeaten to Kent State is 43 teams long (Seton Hill beat Bloomsburg and lost to Fairmont State, so Fairmont State isn’t part of the chain).
So let’s wrap this up with a hypothetical. Remember, *Virginia Tech* was one of the lowest rungs on the ladder. The same Virginia Tech that had beaten Miami-FL last week until the refs suddenly decided they hadn’t, Miami who’s unbeaten as a result and thus Tier 1. What would it look like if VaTech had won and Miami-FL had fallen to Tier 14? Well, Ball State was already all the way down in Tier 29, so the only teams that would fall to Tier 15 are South Florida (from Tier 4), Florida (from Tier 10), and Florida A&M (from Tier 11). Dropping to Tier 16 would be Mississippi State (from Tier 11), Southern Miss (also from Tier 11, but due to a loss to USF not UF), and South Carolina State (from Tier 12). Dropping to Tier 17 would be Eastern Kentucky (from Tier 12, loss to Mississippi State) and Southeastern Louisiana (also from Tier 12, loss to Southern Miss). …And that’s it. Miami really doesn’t have that many great wins.