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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/EnvironmentalBed7369 on 2024-09-13 17:41:32+00:00.
I know that home attendance isn’t a huge factor in determining who to add, but I was wondering how strong a following teams that I thought made sense actually have and then thought about how it compared to their market to consider growth potential with better competition. I’m not doing any sort mathematical computation or analytics, just looking home attendance and very unscientifically considering market. Note, I’m considering all schools Texas and west that are FBS (not P-5) and select southern teams that I think may be appealing. I’m including prominent FCS out west and disregarding any FCS under 10k attendance.
| Attendance Rank (by division) | School | Attendance (2023) | Market Population | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | Fresno State | 39,969 | 800k | IN PAC |
| 60 | South Florida | 37,944 | 3m | Bad geo |
| 61 | Oregon State | 36,969 | 2.2m (Portland, split w/ Oregon) | IN PAC |
| 62 | Boise State | 35,867 | 838k | IN PAC |
| 72 | Memphis | 29,782 | 1.34m | Bad geo |
| 73 | Air Force | 29,616 | 765k | Perfect fit, if don’t go AAC |
| 75 | UTSA | 28,876 | 2.3m | Strong attendance & market |
| 76 | Wazzu | 28,023 | 600k (Spokane) | IN PAC |
| 78 | Colo State | 26,509 | 755k | IN PAC |
| 2 (FCS) | Montana | 26,269 (104% capacity!) | 126k | MWC should try |
| 82 | Tulane | 25,021 | 1.3m | Bad geo |
| 83 | San Diego St | 24,832 | 3.2m | IN PAC |
| 85 | UNLV | 23,661 | 2.3m | Solid Pac Option |
| 88 | Wyoming | 23,163 | 100k (Laramie & Cheyenne) | Solid attendance considering market size |
| 3 (FCS) | Montana St | 21, 610 (121% capacity!) | 118,960 | MWC should try |
| 92 | Texas State | 21,184 | 2.4m (Austin), 2.3m (San Antonio) | Saturated market, but Texans love football |
| 94 | Rice | 20,542 | 7.1m | Better attendance than I expected |
| 95 | Tulsa | 20,187 | 1m | Fringe option |
| 98 | Utah State | 19,282 | 155k (Logan), 2.7 (SLC Metro) | Maybe. Likely stay MWC |
| 6 (FCS) | S. Dakota St | 18,208 | 35k | Not as strong MWC option as I thought |
| 102 | UTEP | 18,160 | 869k | MWC pick up |
| 104 | North Texas | 17,761 | 8m | Saturated market |
| 108 | Nevada | 16,998 | 564k | Stay MWC |
| 110 | SJSU | 16,804 | 2m | Stay MWC |
| 114 | New Mexico | 15,982 | 915k | Market potential for Pac?? |
| 11 (FCS) | N. Dakota St. | 15,121 | 300k | Maybe MWC |
| 119 | New Mex St | 14,847 | 217k | MWC option |
| 12 (FCS) | Sacramento St | 13, 368 | 2.4m | MWC option due to market |
| 16 (FCS) | Idaho | 11,737 | 600k (Spokane?), ~350k North ID | I think stay FCS. Would love in MWC |
| 127 | Hawaii | 11,251 | 1m | Stay MWC |
| 22 (FCS) | UC Davis | 10,562 | 2.4m (Sac) | Maybe MWC du to market |
| 24 (FCS) | North Dakota | 10,288 | 100k | Stay FCS |
| 132 | Sam Houston St. | 8,298 | 50k | not moving. Only incl b/c Texas |
If I’m the 6 Pac-12 schools, if I can’t lure back any previous P12 (e.g. Stanford and Cal), I’d consider 4 schools from Texas (UTSA, Rice, Tx St, N. Texas). Tulane. Memphis and So. Florida are wild cards, but maybe too far away. But I say grab 4 of that overall group of schools. That brings them to 10.
From there if they want to go to 12 or more, I’d grab UNLV and Air Force (unless AF wants to join their academy bros in the AAC). To replace AF, they ought to consider Utah St (though they are in turmoil right now, but have a lot of potential), Wyoming (beloved in the state, rivalry with CSU), or New Mexico (decent market).
For the Mountain West, I’d do all I can to try to lure the Montana schools out of FCS. Maybe if they can convince the Dakota State schools, Sac State, and UC Davis, that’d be enough to lure the Montana schools? Otherwise, go grab UTEP, NMSU, and try to convince some other Texas schools and Tulsa to join.
I was surprised and disappointed in Hawaii’s attendance. Remind me, are they playing in a temporary stadium?
My prediction: Pac grabs two more to get to 8 (UTSA and Rice or Tx St) and stands pat for a couple of years to see what happens with the ACC and Big-12.