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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/TruEuchreMaster on 2024-09-09 13:15:54+00:00.
If you missed my post from last week, here’s a link: Using ESPN’s SOR and FPI to Determine the CFB Playoffs if They Happened Right Now - Week 1 : r/CFB (reddit.com)
Going to try and do this every Monday to prepare for incoming MACtion, especially since the MAC just became a lot more relevant playoff wise. Anyways, here’s what the playoffs would look like if ESPN’s SOR was used to determine the 12 playoff teams after week 2:
Top 5 Conference Champions:
Northern Illinois - MAC (1st in SOR)
Texas - SEC (2nd in SOR)
California - ACC (3rd in SOR)
Michigan State - Big Ten (5th in SOR)
Iowa State - Big 12 (8th in SOR)
Other 7 playoff teams:
Georgia (4th in SOR)
USC (6th in SOR)
Boston College (7th in SOR)
BYU (9th in SOR)
Penn State (10th in SOR)
Oklahoma State (11th in SOR)
Kansas State (12th in SOR)
Based on the CFP Playoff Seeding rules here’s how it would be seeded:
- Northern Illinois
- Texas
- California
- Michigan State
- Georgia
- USC
- Boston College
- Iowa State
- BYU
- Penn State
- Oklahoma State
- Kansas State
Now using ESPN’s FPI here’s how the playoffs would play out if the higher rated team advanced each game:
Round 1:
(5) Georgia vs (12) Kansas State: Georgia wins (2nd in FPI vs 18th)
(6) USC vs (11) Oklahoma State: USC wins (8th vs 27th)
(7) Boston College vs (10) Penn State: Penn State wins (7th vs 24th)*
(8) Iowa State vs (9) BYU: Iowa State wins (49th vs 58th)
*Penn State’s FPI is much higher than Boston College’s (17.8 vs 9.1) so I believe Penn State would still be favored even though the game would be at Boston College. For consistency’s sake, I will just use the higher rated team to advance regardless of home field advantage but put an asterisk each time the higher rated team is on the road.
Quarterfinals:
(1) Northern Illinois vs (8) Iowa State: Iowa State wins (49th vs 74th)
(2) Texas vs (10) Penn State: Texas wins (1st vs 7th)
(3) California vs (6) USC: USC wins (8th vs 40th)
(4) Michigan State vs (5) Georgia: Georgia wins (2nd vs 66th)
Semi-finals:
(8) Iowa State vs (5) Georgia: Georgia wins (2nd vs 49th)
(2) Texas vs (6) USC: Texas wins (1st vs 8th)
Championship:
(5) Georgia vs (2) Texas: Texas wins (1st vs 2nd)
Comments:
- My prediction in week 1 was wrong since the top 12 teams in SOR did make the playoffs again this week. I suspect this will continue to be the case until Northern Illinois drops out of the top 12.
- Only 4 teams that made the playoffs last week made it this week (USC, Georgia, Boston College, and Penn State).
- The SEC has won both championships so far (Georgia last week and Texas this week).