We Talked To Real Swing Voters: What They Told Us Will Shock You. | More Perfect Union (15:57)

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• mozz@mbin.grits.dev ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Here’s my prediction about “More Perfect Union”, just based on the channel name and the downvotes:

  • Weirdly high production values
  • Reasons why people don’t support Harris / Democrats and you shouldn’t either
  • General leftist vibe but no particular leftist plans other than DEFINITELY NOT VOTING FOR DEMOCRATS
  • No particular affiliation with any existing leftist organization or personality, just arrived from nowhere

  I could be totally off base. That’s just my guessing prediction based on a learned level of suspicion that at this point verges on furious unfair cynical prejudice

  Brb

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  • mozz@mbin.grits.dev ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    OH LOOK

    ---

    Here are the main points covered in the transcript:

    • Elliott County, Kentucky has unusual voting patterns, having voted for Democrats in every presidential election for 144 years straight until 2016.
    • In 2016, Elliott County had the largest swing from Obama to Trump of any county in the US.
    • Despite voting for Trump in 2016 and 2020, Elliott County voted for Democratic Governor Andy Beshear in recent elections.
    • The county is rural, 99% white, with limited economic opportunities and a median household income that has barely changed in over 30 years.
    • Historically, Democrats were seen as the party for working class and poor people, associated with unions and FDR's New Deal programs.
    • Over time, the Democratic Party shifted focus away from rural blue-collar voters towards white-collar suburban voters.
    • Many residents express frustration with both parties and feel abandoned by politicians.
    • Economic concerns, including stagnant wages and lack of local opportunities, are major issues for residents.
    • Immigration and border security have become top concerns for some voters, despite the county's distance from the southern border.
    • Governor Andy Beshear won in Elliott County by focusing on local economic issues and distancing himself from the national Democratic brand.
    • Some residents recognize they have more in common with working-class immigrants than with wealthy politicians.
    • There's a desire for working-class unity across political lines, but also a sense of grasping at any potential solution to local economic struggles.
    • The influence of money in politics and the growing wealth of billionaires are seen as problems by some residents.
    • Trump's outsider status and promise to "drain the swamp" appealed to voters frustrated with traditional politicians.

    This summary captures the key points about Elliott County's unique political situation, the economic challenges facing its residents, and the complex factors influencing their voting patterns.

    ---

    Emphasis is mine

    I actually think the forgotten-ness of rural voters and their jobs and ability to make a living by both sides of the aisle is a hugely important story specifically vis-a-vis why Trump got so much support. I don't fully disagree with the thesis of the video.

    However

    I like to talk about this explosive growth of working class wages over the last 4 years (nowhere near enough but also something worth giving credit to Biden for). I wondered if that applied also to Elliot County -- I still don't really know the answer, but I found this, and if you click back to 2020 the bars only go up to $60k and in 2022 they were going up to $95k so that tells you some level of something.

    It's also notable that I was able to predict what the piece would say without anything to go on other than educated guessing about what it might cover.

    I would be curious to see something actually diving into how things have worked out (specifically taking Elliot County as an example) for the last few years, where that $95k actually came from, how common it is, how things worked out in 2023 and why, etc etc. Basically a real unbiased version of what this video is a somewhat blinkered form of, would be fuckin fascinating.

    This isn't it though

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