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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Impudicity2001 on 2024-08-22 13:57:06+00:00.
As most have heard, Florida plays the hardest schedule in the nation and possibly ever. Although 1971 Nebraska may beg to differ on that last point. I saw a thread the other day asking r/CFB how they thought their team would fare against UF’s schedule and thought I could add some context by using @espnbill_c SP+ and FanDuel’s Win total’s numbers to see how many additional losses a team could expect.
As shown in the table below. The summary stats are illuminating, on average a P4 team could expect an additional 2.34 losses compared to their FD Win total. The maximum was held by Syracuse who would be expected to lose almost 5 additional games. The minimum, I expected to be Georgia but it was UCLA at only losing an additional 0.16 games.
Speaking of the SEC, while I did expect nonSEC teams to have an elevated loss total, but the spread from Georgia’s additional 0.41 losses to Auburn’s 2.26 shows that conferences themselves no longer are a monolith of how difficult it is to play ball. I expect Missouri will benefit from “SEC SEC SEC” chants into the playoffs if they go 10-2 even though they would be expected to be 8-4 playing UF’s schedule. Although to be fair, Missouri needs something after suffering the 5th down against Colorado and the Fleakicker against Nebraska. On to the table…
| Team | Conference | Fan Duel Win Total | Expected Wins against UF’s schedule | Additional Expected Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | ACC | 4.50 | 2.50 | -2.00 |
| California | ACC | 6.50 | 3.25 | -3.25 |
| Clemson | ACC | 8.50 | 6.85 | -1.65 |
| Duke | ACC | 5.50 | 3.30 | -2.20 |
| Florida State | ACC | 9.50 | 6.99 | -2.51 |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 4.50 | 2.91 | -1.59 |
| Louisville | ACC | 8.50 | 4.86 | -3.64 |
| Miami | ACC | 9.50 | 5.72 | -3.78 |
| NC State | ACC | 8.50 | 5.03 | -3.47 |
| North Carolina | ACC | 7.50 | 4.16 | -3.34 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 5.50 | 2.71 | -2.79 |
| SMU | ACC | 8.50 | 5.15 | -3.35 |
| Stanford | ACC | 3.50 | 2.36 | -1.14 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 7.50 | 2.68 | -4.82 |
| Virginia | ACC | 4.50 | 2.36 | -2.14 |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 8.50 | 4.46 | -4.04 |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 4.50 | 2.47 | -2.03 |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 7.50 | 5.09 | -2.41 |
| Arizona State | Big 12 | 4.50 | 2.30 | -2.20 |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 5.50 | 3.16 | -2.34 |
| BYU | Big 12 | 4.50 | 2.61 | -1.89 |
| Cincinnati | Big 12 | 5.50 | 2.81 | -2.69 |
| Colorado | Big 12 | 5.50 | 2.87 | -2.63 |
| Houston | Big 12 | 3.50 | 2.38 | -1.12 |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 7.50 | 4.90 | -2.60 |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 8.50 | 4.52 | -3.98 |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | 9.50 | 5.98 | -3.52 |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 8.50 | 5.44 | -3.06 |
| TCU | Big 12 | 7.50 | 4.32 | -3.18 |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 7.50 | 4.07 | -3.43 |
| UCF | Big 12 | 7.50 | 3.53 | -3.97 |
| Utah | Big 12 | 9.50 | 5.84 | -3.66 |
| West Virginia | Big 12 | 6.50 | 4.52 | -1.98 |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 5.50 | 2.84 | -2.66 |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 5.50 | 2.24 | -3.26 |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 8.50 | 5.26 | -3.24 |
| Maryland | Big Ten | 6.50 | 3.66 | -2.84 |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 8.50 | 7.91 | -0.59 |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | 4.50 | 2.50 | -2.00 |
| Minnesota | Big Ten | 5.50 | 3.49 | -2.01 |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 7.50 | 4.07 | -3.43 |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 4.50 | 2.44 | -2.06 |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 10.50 | 9.10 | -1.40 |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 10.50 | 8.75 | -1.75 |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 9.50 | 8.15 | -1.35 |
| Purdue | Big Ten | 4.50 | 2.63 | -1.87 |
| Rutgers | Big Ten | 6.28 | 3.37 | -2.92 |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 4.50 | 4.34 | -0.16 |
| USC | Big Ten | 7.50 | 5.42 | -2.08 |
| Washington | Big Ten | 6.50 | 4.65 | -1.85 |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 6.50 | 5.20 | -1.30 |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 10.50 | 7.56 | -2.94 |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 7.50 | 3.32 | -4.18 |
| Washington State | Pac-12 | 7.50 | 2.91 | -4.59 |
| Alabama | SEC | 9.50 | 8.51 | -0.99 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 4.50 | 3.82 | -0.68 |
| Auburn | SEC | 7.50 | 5.24 | -2.26 |
| Florida | SEC | 4.50 | 5.57 | |
| Georgia | SEC | 10.50 | 10.09 | -0.41 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 6.50 | 5.30 | -1.20 |
| LSU | SEC | 9.50 | 7.62 | -1.88 |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 4.50 | 2.80 | -1.70 |
| Missouri | SEC | 9.50 | 7.29 | -2.21 |
| Oklahoma | SEC | 7.50 | 6.75 | -0.75 |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 9.50 | 8.00 | -1.50 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 5.50 | 4.48 | -1.02 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 8.50 | 6.84 | -1.66 |
| Texas | SEC | 10.50 | 8.86 | -1.64 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8.50 | 6.64 | -1.86 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 2.50 | 1.94 | -0.56 |