This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Stat_Fanatic_YouTube on 2024-08-22 11:53:09+00:00.
| Team | Quality Loss Score |
|---|---|
| Nebraska | 10.4 |
| Arkansas | 6.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.7 |
| Virginia Tech | 4.4 |
| UCLA | 4.1 |
| Iowa State | 4.1 |
| Illinois | 3.8 |
| Kansas | 3.5 |
| Louisville | 3.3 |
| UCF | 3.3 |
Welcome to college football, where we discuss quality losses at the end of the season more than impressive wins.
Since a ‘quality loss’ is a meme in itself and is far too subjective, I thought it would be smart to make it a bit more scientific. To calculate a quality loss, I subtracted a team’s total wins from their expected wins. Expected wins are based on a team’s post game win probability, which is defined as follows:
Post game win probability looks at advanced metrics like success rates, PPA, and scoring opportunities and assesses the probability of each team winning should the game be played again with equivalent stats. In other words, if you take all of the plays in a game and shuffle them into a random order, how often would each team be expected to win?
Subtracting total wins from the expected wins gives us an output that expresses how many losses a team had that would more likely result in a win if the game was played again with the same performances, or a quality loss. Another to frame it: unlucky.