This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/soccer by /u/AnnieIWillKnow on 2024-08-22 08:08:35+00:00.
The /r/soccer Predictions Survey 2024/25 - results!
Thank you to everyone who participated in our annual Predictions Survey.Now that the major European domestic leagues now under way, I am pleased to present the results - pie charts and all.
Next summer, we will be able to return to the results of the survey - and realise how wrong we all were (I will repost at the end of the season - which is also when the winners of the special “wildcard” predictions will be announced).
| All of the graphics results can be viewed in a single Imgur album, here |
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The full results
There were a total of 335 participants - which although only a small minority of the /r/soccer userbase, is a good enough sample size to draw some conclusions from.
| Part 1 - the biggest prizes |
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The Women’s Euros
Unsurprisingly, /r/soccer think the 2023 World Cup winners will back up their first major honour with a second, with over half predicting Spain to win Euro 2025. England and Germany follow, as the next favourites.
The UEFA Champions League?
Nearly a third think Real Madrid will defend their title, with Man City second favourites with 19.8% Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid are almost equal third favourites - Bayern just edging it with 9% to 8.7%.
The Copa Libertadores
Potentially some big name recognition at play here, with 30.9% choosing River Plate to win the Copa Libertadores. Following behind were Flamengo and Palmeiras, with 19.8% and 18.1% respectively.
The Men’s Ballon d’Or
A pretty clear top 2 - with over half thinking it’s Vini’s year, and just under a third thinking Rodri will get his dues. Mbappe is well behind with less than 7% of the vote - then only a few scattered votes for any other players.
The Women’s Ballon d’Or
More of a top 1, here. A huge 75.4% backed Aitana Bonmati to win her second consecutive Ballon d’Or, with her Barcelona team mate Caroline Graham Hansen second with 15.1%.
The Club World Cup
It’s hard to know how seriously the inaugural revamped Club World Cup will be taken, this summer - but /r/soccer thinks the big European teams will take it seriously enough, given that Real Madrid (41.9%) and Man City (31.4%) had the most votes.
| Part 2 - Major European domestic leagues |
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In the interest of brevity, only the prediction for the title winners, top 4s, relegated teams, and Golden Boot winners for the biggest four European leagues were surveyed - and then the winners of a selection of others.
n.b. for the top 4 and relegated team predictions, the percentages given indicted the proportion of respondents who picked them, as a “yes/no” binary, e.g. "50% of voters thought Everton would be relegated"
The English Premier League
The tide might be changing… Although Man City still won the vote, they edged Arsenal by less than 5%. That teal slice is Liverpool, with 7.2%, and not the similarly coloured Chelsea (although a whole four people were mad enough to pick them).
The top 4
The four teams with the most votes were:
- Man City (98.2%)
- Arsenal (96.1%)
- Liverpool (77.0%)
- Man United (41.1%)
Spurs with a vote share of 40.8% were just pipped in the post. Newcastle and Villa then lagged way behind, with about 10% backing them - and of note, Chelsea were picked by just 8.8% of voters.
The relegated teams
Bad news for the tricky Trees, /r/soccer is seriously down on Forest’s survival hopes… the following three teams were picked as most likely for the drop.
- Nottingham Forest (75.2%)
- Ipswich (56.0%)
- Southampton (55.1%)
Leicester were not far behind with 43% voting them to go down - and there was then a big drop off to Brentford with 19.8%
The Golden Boot winner
Haaland was the overwhelming favourite, with 77% of the vote - but a dropoff from his 87.4% vote from last year. There was a huge gap to the next most popular pick - Isak receiving 4.9% of the vote.
La Liga
Serious domination from the big 3 - Real Madrid were /r/soccer’s choice with 64.8% of the vote, and then 18.5% voting for Atleti, and 15.1% Barcelona. That left less than 2% for anyone else - and not a single other team received more than one vote.
The top 4
Accordingly, the following top 4 were chosen by the popular vote:
- Real Madrid (98.6%)
- Atletico Madrid (98.6%)
- Barcelona (98.3%)
- Athletic Bilbao (46.4%)
The next most popular pick was Real Sociedad, with 23.7% predicting they would finish in the top 4.
The relegated teams
The relegation battle was less clear cut, with the following three teams predicted to go down:
- Leganes (63.2%)
- Valladolid (43.7%)
- Alaves (42.9%)
The next favourites were Las Palmas, with 34% of the vote.
The Pichichi (Golden Boot) winner
The overwhelming favourite was a player who has long been predicted to take La Liga by storm… Kylian Mbappe was the choice of 74% of voters. Joint second were Alexander Sørloth and Julian Alvarez, both receiving 7% of the vote share.
The German Bundesliga
/r/soccer predicts that the status quo will resume in Germany, with Bayern Munich predicted to take back their crown from Bayer Leverkusen - with 66.5% of the vote versus 20.4%.
The top 4
/r/soccer was pretty clear on who they felt would finish in the top 4 in Germany:
- Bayern Munich (98.2%)
- Bayer Leverkusen (95.5%)
- Borussia Dortmund (93.7%)
- RB Leipzig (77.2%)
The next most popular vote was for Stuttgart - a significant drop off to 14.3%.
The relegated teams
The complication of the relegation playoff system in Germany means that there are only two teams guaranteed to be relegated from the Bundesliga. However, /r/soccer managed to predict three teams anyway - as the second and third most popular votes were a dead heat…The two most likely, according to /r/soccer, were:
- Holstein Kiel (70%)
- Heidenheim and St Pauli (53.4%)
The Golden Boot winner
/r/soccer evidently found it hard to look beyond last season’s Golden Boot winner - Harry Kane received a massive 92.7% of the vote, with Serhou Guirassy second place with only 3%.
Italian Serie A
Inter were the heavy favourites with 60% of the vote - followed by Juventus with 17.2%, and then Milan with 15.5%.
The top 4
Despite the surprise teas of recent years qualifying for the Champions League from Serie A, /r/soccer decided to stick with the big names, voting the following top 4:
- Inter (98.4%)
- Juventus (93.1%)
- Milan (87.3%)
- Napoli (37.8%)
It was a close run thing between Napoli and Roma for fourth spot, however - Roma received 35.1% of votes, just 2.7% less than Napoli.
The relegated teams
The bottom three was a fairly close run thing - the following three were voted as most likely for the drop, but Empoli were not far behind with 38.8% voting for them:
- Venezia (58.1%)
- Como (50.8%)
- Lecce (41.8%)
The Capocannoniere (Golden Boot) winner
The predictions in the top scorer stakes continued to be something of a one-horse race, as in other leagues. Lautaro Martinez was the most popular choice with 59.9% of the vote, with Dušan Vlahović in second with 13.1%.
Selected other European league champions
No surprises here - PSG were by far and away the favourites with 87.6% of the vote, and Marseille were a distance second with just 5.2%.
Nearly two thirds (64.8%) voted for reigning champions, PSV - being way ahead of Feyenoord with 19.9% of the vote, and Ajax with 12.5%.
A satisfying Mercedes-Benz of a vote distribution here, with the voting divided very evenly between the Portuguese big 3. Benfica just edged it with 34.7%, followed by Sporting with 33.9%, and Porto with 29.6%.
Bit less decisive here - Club Brugge were /r/soccer’s favourites with 39.1%, followed by Anderlecht with 21.7% and then Union SG with 14.6%.
I can only apologise for Google Forms’ choice of colours here - but unsurprisingly that’s Celtic with 85.9% of the vote, and then Rangers with 11.1%.
The Championship can be difficult to predict, but /r/soccer seem fair…
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