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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/Stat_Fanatic_YouTube on 2024-08-16 15:44:31+00:00.
I broke down the top 10 Power 5 (now 4) teams that have won games in which they were the underdogs (based on pregame win probability <50%) and these were the results:
Last 5 Years
| Teams | # of Upset Wins | Average Spread |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia Tech | 13 | 3.1 |
| Baylor | 12 | 2.1 |
| Illinois | 12 | 5.6 |
| Purdue | 11 | 1.6 |
| West Virginia | 10 | 2.5 |
| Michigan State | 10 | 1.9 |
| Colorado | 10 | 2.5 |
| UCLA | 10 | 1.8 |
| Kansas State | 10 | 3.1 |
| Boston College | 9 | 1 |
Last 3 Years
| Teams | # of Upset Wins | Average Spread |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 9 | 2.2 |
| Michigan State | 8 | 1.4 |
| Georgia Tech | 8 | 2.3 |
| Oklahoma State | 7 | 2.4 |
| Illinois | 7 | 7.1 |
| Purdue | 7 | 4.1 |
| Missouri | 6 | 1.8 |
| Washington State | 6 | 4.8 |
| Northwestern | 6 | 3.7 |
| LSU | 6 | 5.6 |
Now looking at the conferences with the most upsets and only including conference games, this is what it breaks down to:
Last 5 Years
| Conference | # of Conference Game Upsets | Average Spread |
|---|---|---|
| ACC | 88 | 0.4 |
| Big Ten | 73 | 1.7 |
| Pac-12 | 67 | 0.6 |
| Big 12 | 66 | 1.3 |
| SEC | 61 | 0.7 |
Last 3 Years
| Conference | # of Conference Game Upsets | Average Spread |
|---|---|---|
| ACC | 49 | 0.6 |
| Big 12 | 46 | 1.1 |
| Big Ten | 42 | 1.7 |
| SEC | 37 | 2.3 |
| Pac-12 | 34 | 1 |