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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/JokerDeSilva10 on 2024-08-14 07:45:24+00:00.

Historically, anywhere between usually four and ten coaches are fired at some point in any given season. It is inevitable that at least a handful of current head coaches are going to be on the chopping block, and I think we can also sniff out a few who are more likely than others.

So, in this, the first-going-on-second week of Preseason, while all the hot take merchants are spinning up their takes for the season, it’s time to put down your flagpole and make a wild swing: who is the first one who’s going to get the axe?

Looking through the Divisions, a handful of names do already stand out, and I’ll personally go through division by division (tl;dr at the end because I can’t help myself):

The AFC East

The East is in an interesting position. On the one hand, it seems like as many as three teams could sneak into the playoffs on the back of strong quarterbacks, defenses, and coaching schemes, if everything shakes out well. On the other hand, there are two coaches that I think have shown cracks in the foundation. Now, Mayo is almost a 100% lock to get at least two seasons, unless the Patriots are truly abysmal in every facet - that looming shadow of Belichick is going to be rough, but I think Kraft wants to put his mark on things; meanwhile, Mike McDaniel has been too savvy of an offensive mind to get the boot, I think, and even a late season collapse is more likely to see Tua shipped off for another swing than a new coach. Now, funnily enough, the Jets and Bills both feel like they’re in the running for top of the division, but Saleh and McDermott feel like they’re the most likely to be canned at the end of the year.

Note I say the end of the year, though. I highly doubt either man is going to be shown the door until the playoffs have wrapped. McDermott is more than likely safe, but another playoff collapse - or even missing the playoffs - after a string of “almost there” seasons might be enough for Terry Pegula to look elsewhere. Meanwhile, the entire Jets administration is basically hinging on Rodgers having a good season and running to double digit wins. If there’s another diabolical collapse, we could see the house cleaned on almost every level - but they have a good enough defense and skill position players that I think they’ll be in the running until late in the season, even if Rodgers gets hurt or flames out.

The AFC North

A division of sage, rock solid coaching institutions. Harbaugh has delivered two MVPs and several One Seeds as of late. Tomlin has never had a losing season and the Steelers organization almost never shifts coaches to begin with. Stefanski is a two-time Coach of the Year who made miracles out of garbage with the QB room last season. Zac Taylor is probably the least impressive of the four, and he’s still seen a Super Bowl and many high level offenses - even if we can argue until the cows come home if that’s him or Burrow and their insane receiving room.

If I had to pick one to leave, it might be Tomlin if that “never had a losing season” isn’t quite enough to keep him safe, though I think he’d be snapped up in a heartbeat; Stefanski may also be the victim of political maneuvering. If they have an awful season, they’re still shackled to Watson due to his contract and someone might need to be the fall guy. Then again, it might just be Andrew (not Joe) Berry instead, and Stefanski is another who I think would have a job in five minutes of being fired. Realistically, everyone here keeps their job another season.

The AFC South

The opposite of the North in two ways, the AFC South is a division of very young coaches. Promising ones, too! Steichen and DeMeco both had very strong inaugural campaigns and I’d be shocked to see either let go. Brian Callahan, too, is a big question mark, and he’d have to have a Nate Hackett/Hue Jackson level disaster to get fired year one, with a rough-looking roster that ownership has to know is facing some growing pains.

That being said, Doug Pederson is a sneaky pick for a fired coach. His Eagles tenure ended rocky, and with his Press Taylor hiring after that got him fired in Philadelphia, he might be on thin ice. He also faces a similar conundrum to Stefanski: Trevor Lawrence just signed a big extension, and ownership pretty much has to bank on another coach getting more out of him if the year looks back. Throw in a rough opening schedule that sees the Jaguars play the Dolphins, Browns, BIlls, Texans, Colts, Packers, Eagles, Lions, and even the new-look Bears before their first bye and this could be an ugly year if everything breaks bad. (I don’t think it will, but there’s a possibility.)

The AFC West

This is another division where basically everyone is safe. Andy Reid is all but untouchable barring massive off-the-field scandal, and even that doesn’t seem like enough; Harbaugh is a massive “get” for San Di - sorry, Los Angeles, and they’re not going to let him go until he has a year or two at least to make the owner hate his guts; Antonio Pierce is beloved by the team and will almost certainly get at least a year to try and win games with Minshewmania and AOC; Sean Payton is probably the weakest case right now, but let’s be real, as much as he’s a detestable human being, Payton is getting at least two years to try and make something out of Bo Nix and this roster. No one here is leaving before year’s end at absolute minimum.

The NFC East

An extremely volatile division, as it turns out.

On the one hand, there are some good coaches and strong teams here; but they are also, similar to the Jets and Bills, the victims of high expectations. Mike McCarthy is perhaps the most tenuously positioned - he’s overseen too many playoff collapses from seemingly very talented Packers - sorry, it’s 2024 - Cowboys teams for him to be very safe in his job. If this isn’t a big year for Dallas, we could see a new coach-and-QB combo by 2025.

Meanwhile, there is also trouble in Philadelphia. I’m sure a lot of people are going to spray cheese-steak scented invective at me for saying it, but Sirianni’s leadership should be checked with a geiger counter. That team imploded at the end of the year, and they were way too talented to look that awful. Sirianni had best hope it was his Coordinators and not him, because if they have another ugly year, that man is gone and he’s not going to get a statue first, this time.

Lastly, Brian Daboll is, I think, on a more steaming seat than he perhaps should be. Much like Saleh, Daboll feels like a victim of circumstances who’s actually a good coach, but when you’re going into year 3 with nothing to show for it, your record starts to become who you are whether it’s fair or not. I think he’s a better coach than he’s always looked, with a diabolical offensive roster, but the Giants did drop off sharply from year one to year two, so that rarely bodes well.

And, of course, Dan Quinn is Dan Quinn. He’s going to be a solid, stable thumb on the sidelines for at least two years before he’s gone.

The NFC North

Another really safe division, honestly. Do I need to go into detail? Dan Campbell is everyone’s cool dad who wants to fight people but in a benevolent way. Matt LaFleur went from MVP QB to untested young starter with barely a hiccup. Kevin O’Connell seems like an offensive mastermind and is going to get a mulligan with a rocky new QB situation unless he throws a brick at a fan.

It’s Eberflus, of course, who is in danger. He looked real rocky with Justin Fields, and seems to be on his last chance to prove he can do more with a new, better QB. A lame duck coach is rarely a good idea, but that’s kind of where we are. Now, I think he’s got some cushion, but if the Bears look hideous, he’s probably getting shown the door; it’s just likely at the end of the year, as the Bears basically don’t fire people mid-season ever. And as long as he can steer that team to 6 or 7+ wins with a good showing from Caleb, I think he’ll make it to another year, and there’s more than enough talent on that team to make it.

The NFC South

See if you can guess who’s the answer to the thesis question before I get there.

Raheem Morris and Dave Canales are, of course, brand new and are likely to get at least two years to make their mark because of that - though they’re more unstable than some rookie head coaches. The Falcons are burdened with high expectations and the looming “should we have hired Belichick?” energy, not to mention the head-scratching QB drama in the off season. Kirk and that offense should look great and challenge for the division, but will they? Who knows. And while Canales should get a strong chance to make something of Bryce Young, that rookie campaign was ugly and David Tepper is, frankly, a bottom 3 owner at best so who knows what he’s going to do.

Todd Bowles is in an interesting position. I think most people are pretty down on Bowles as a coach after his Jets tenure, and the last year of Brady, but then somehow he coached a better season without Brady and with Baker Mayfield?? that shouldn’t be possible, and I say that as a Baker bro. He’s probably won himself some rope to play with, but a complete collapse could see him shown the door surprisingly quickly.

Lastly, of course, there is the man, the myth, the milquetoast legend: Dennis Allen. The Saints are in a horrible position, fighting with cap hits and restructures to try and keep themselves afloat. They gave Derek Carr too much money. The…

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