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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/OhioValleyCat on 2024-08-11 07:40:13+00:00.

Original Title: A byproduct of conference expansion is that historically Top Tier teams are increasingly consolidated in fewer conferences. What football programs are likely to stay perennial top teams and which are likely to fall towards the middle of the pack nationally?

Decades ago, conferences were smaller and teams did not play as many conferences’ games.   In 1970, for example, the 8-team ACC, Southwest, Pacific-8, and Big 8 conferences each played 7 conference games.   Meanwhile, the 10-member Big Ten also played 7 conference games and the 10-member SEC played varying conference schedules that ranged from 5 to 7 games.  As the college football regular season grew from 10 to 11 games in the early 1970s, and to 12 games in the early 2000s; each conference added 1 to 3 additional conference games. 

Fast forward to 2024 and the super conferences are not just comprised of up to 18 teams, they are now playing 8 or 9 conference games per season with a title game for the top 2 teams.   Meanwhile, teams that are historically among the Top 30 in college football history based on AP poll ratings* are being increasingly consolidated into fewer conferences where they will be pitted against one another on a more regular basis as with the alignment below:

  1. SEC (11):  #1 Alabama, #3 Oklahoma, #7 Texas, #10 Tennessee, #11 Georgia, #12 LSU, #14 Auburn, #15 Florida, #20 Arkansas, #22 Texas A&M, #23 Mississippi
  2. Big Ten (11): #2 Ohio State, #4 Michigan, #6 USC, #8 Nebraska, #9 Penn State, #18 UCLA, #19 Michigan State, #21 Washington, #24 Wisconsin, #25 Iowa , #28 Oregon
  3. ACC (5): #13 Florida State, #16 Miami, #17 Clemson, #26 Georgia Tech, #30 Pittsburgh
  4. Big 12 (2): #27 TCU, #29 Oklahoma State
  5. Independent (1): #5 Notre Dame

While the strength of schedule considerations always get consideration in poll ratings, mounting losses remain an obstacle to finishing high or within the Top 25, so some may or may not be able to hold their tradition of top finishes on a regular basis.