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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/practicalist on 2024-07-29 14:23:28+00:00.
I wrote up a very long article about the correlation between NFL Teams’ Positional Spend vs. Win%. It has data from every year 2013 -2024, but the amount of graphics make it impossible to post in its entirity on Reddit.
So I am going to post a cliffnotes edition here and if you wish to get all the details, data and charts you can read the full article here:
TLDR: You should be able to enjoy the post just by checking out the graphs and charts. Reading is optional 8-)
2024 NFL Positional Spend
Below is a look at each team’s positional spend in 2024 Kickers, punters, and long snappers are excluded.
NFL 2024 Positional Spend By Team
Top 5 Teams – Offensive Players Spend
- LA Rams – 69.85%
- Cleveland Browns – 66.43%
- Kansas City Chiefs – 66.21%
- Dallas Cowboys – 63.25
- Carolina Panthers – 62.26%
Two other teams spend over 60% on offensive players: Detroit Lions 61.83% & Miami Dolphins 60.10%
Top 5 Teams – Defensive Player Spend
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 66.77%
- Green Bay Packers – 64.11%
- LA Chargers – 58.37%
- Tennessee Titans – 56.81%
- Washington Commanders – 54.33%
Only two other teams spend more than half their salary cap on defensive players: NY Jets 53.70% & NE Patirots 53.57%.
That leaves 18 teams that spend between 50% – 60% on offensive players.
NFL Positional Spend By Year 2013 - 2024
NFL Positional Spend 2013 - 2024 By Year
NFL Positional Spend By Position 2013 - 2024
NFL Positional Spend 2013 -2024 By Position
2023 Positional Spend vs Win % Correlation
In 2023 the highest correlation with Win % was amount spent on Offensive players(0.398). Spend on Defensive players as a group had almost no correlation whatsoever with Win % (0.019). By position group the rankings:
- Quarterback & Offensive Line (0.288) TIE
- Cornerback (0.171)
- Interior Defensive Line (0.077)
- Wide Receiver (0.064)
- Edge (0.012)
- Running Back (-0.048)
- Tight End (-0.093)
- Linebacker (-0.123)
- Safety (-0.166)
In 2023 there was moderate correlation between Win % and spend on Offensive Players, Quarterbacks, & Offensive Lineman. If a team invested in these position groups in 2023, they had winning seasons on average…
The converse of this, is that in 2023 teams that spent heavily on Safety & Linebackers tended to have below average seasons. The negative correlation on these positions was not as strong as the Offensive, QB & OL positive correlations, but they do register in the missle of the weak influence area.
2013 – 2023 NFL Position Spend vs Win %
Here is a chart that summarizes the last 11 seasons’ positional spend vs Win % correlation. In the chart below each year is a row, and each position is a colum. The correlation value is show for each position in every year.
In addition to the correlation values, at the bottom of the chart you will see the following rows:
- AVG = Average correlation for the position over the past 11 seasons.
- MEDIAN = The median value for each position over the past 11 seasons
- High = The highest correlation value for the position from 2013 – 2023
- Low = The lowest correlation value for the position from 2013 – 2023
- Pos Correl Years = Amount of years the position had a positive correlation with Win %
- Neg Correl Years = Amount of years the position had a negative correlation with Win %
- Pos Correl % = Pos Correl years / Negative Correl Years
- 0.2+ = % of years the positon had a correl of 0.20 or highe
- 0.3+ = % of years the positon had a correl of 0.30 or higher
- 0.4+ = % of years the positon had a correl of 0.40 or higher
NFL Positional Spend vs Win % Correllaion 2013 -2024
Positional Spend WIn % Correlation 2013 -2024
Some interesting takeaways:
- The amount spent on Defensive players as a group had positive correlation in all 11 years.
- The amount spent on Edge players had a positive correlation in 10 out of 11 seasons.
- The amount spend on QBs had a positive correlation in 9 out of 11 seasons. No real surpise here.
- WR, TE, OL, Offense, LB, & Safety all had positive correlation 8 out of 11 seasons.
- RB, IDL, & CB had positive correlation in only 6 of 11 seasons.
- The amount teams spend on offensive players as a group and defensive players in a group has the strongest average correlation over the eleven seasons with both at just over (0.20)
- Edge is the position with the highest average correlation at 0.191. QBs at 2nd at 0.142 & Safeties 3rd at 0.122.
- Interior Defensive Lineman are the only position group to average a negative correlation over 11 seasons (-0.013).
- There were 3 occurances of a position having a positive correlation of over 0.40:
- Defensive Player spend in 2020 (0.416)
- Safety spend in 2017 (0.471)
- CB spend in 2014 (0.416)
- There 3 were occurances of a position having a negative correlation worse than -0.25:
- RBs in 2018 at -0.254
- IDL is 2016 at -0.315
- OL in 2014 at -0.279
- The amount spent on Offensive players or Defensive players as a group has the highest correlation with Win %
- Spend on Offensive players has had a correlation of greater than 0.30 in 6 of 11 season & 0.20+ in 7 seasons.
- Spend on Defensive players has had a correlation if greater than 0.20 in 7 of 11 seasons.
- Edge spend has had a positive correlation of 0.30+ in 5 of 11 seasons.
2024 NFL Team Positional Spend
The four charts below show how much each NFL team is spending on each position in 2024. There are 4 charts to analyze:
- Team Positional Spend – This breaks down the positional spend each team has commited to in 2024.
- Team Positional Spend Ranks – This shows the ranking of each teams’ spend in each position group.
- Team Positional Spend % – This shows the pecentage of the cap each team is spending on each position group.
- Cap Space vs Dead Money – A simple chart showing each teams’ cap space, dead money and cap – dead value. The last value is a bit of an indicator on whether a team’s cap management is working for them or against them this year.
2024 NFL Team Positional Spend Break Down
2024 NFL Team Positional Spend Ranks
2024 NFL Team Positional Spend Ranks & Cap Spend Algorithm
2024 Salary Cap Evaluator
Before I start, take this all with a grain of sale. This is theoretical and was just an interesting way of trying to project the future. However it may have zero statistical validity.
The interesting part of this chart are the two columns in blue. I tried to create an algorithm that would grade teams on where they are spending their money in 2024 based on the positional win % correlation we saw over the 11 seasons from 2013 -2023.
In the chart below you can see the methodology. I took the avg and stdev of the correlation values of all the positions and then normalized each position’s correlation value. This value was multiplied by 10 to give the weight for each position.
Each position value was then multiplied by the team’s rank for spend in that position. So they team that spent the most on Offensive players as a group gets a score of 9.41 * 1 = 9.41 and the team that scores 32nd get a score of 32 * 9.41 = 301.12.
If we do this for evert team rank and position group we will get a final value for each team. In this case, the lower the value, the more likely that the positional spend the team has commited to in 2024 will lead to a winning season.
Please note that this algorithm DOES NOT take into consideration the quality of the player(s) a team spent on, only the amount and the position. A team could spent significantly on Edge players who stink, in which case the algorithm would be “tricked” into ranking the team higher in the rankings since the spend was in a correlated position.
Positional Spend Algorithm Methodology
The 5 teams with the lowest scores and therefore the highest chance at a winning season:
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Cleveland Browns
- Houston Texans
- San Francisco 49ers
- Atlanta Falcons
Teams on this list would seem to be putting their money into the right positions and minimizing dead money. Teams like the Cheifs (10th) & Colts (17th) have almost no dead money charge so t…
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