This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/soccer by /u/AnnieIWillKnow on 2024-07-20 10:04:55+00:00.
“Remember when…” - throwback to the 2023/24 Predictions Survey, and Mark My Words
Ten months is a long time in football.
Back in August, when the community /r/soccer staked our reputations and karma for our 2023/24 season predictions, Harry Kane was yet to win a trophy, Kylian Mbappe was surely just about to sign for Real Madrid, Lemine Yamal was still in nappies.
Well, it turns out Kane has still not yet won a trophy, Mbappe has literally only just now signed for Real Madrid - and Yamal has graduated up to big boy pants… and winning the Euros. So, it’s now time to review those bold claims we made way back then - and enjoy just how right and wrong we all were.
Conducting a survey means we even have DATA to evidence what the famous /r/soccer consensus really was - which I will very much enjoy comparing to…
As a refresher:
Review of Predictions Survey results:
There were a total of 784 participants - which although only a small minority of the /r/soccer userbase, is a good enough sample size to draw some conclusions from.
| Part 1 - the biggest prizes |
|---|
Euro 2024
/r/soccer backed England to bring football home with 37.8% of the vote, with France a close second with 36.8%. The actual winners Spain were a distant third with 5.5.%.
Copa America
/r/soccer (marginally) backed Brazil over Argentina - another one we were wrong about.
The UEFA Champions League
Man City were /r/soccer’s favourites with 33.9%. Bayern Munich and actual winners Real Madrid were joint second, with an equal 19.9%. Again, we were wrong.
The Copa Libertadores
First time winners Fluminese weren’t even mentioned amongst the top picks…
Men’s Ballon d’Or
Finally, we get one right - Lionel Messi was the winner.
Women’s Ballon d’Or
/r/soccer’s insight into women’s football has traditionally been… mixed, and so too it proved here. Over half thought Sam Kerr would win it - and 13.7% were right that it was instead Aitana Bonmati.
| Part 2 - Major European domestic leagues |
|---|
The English Premier League
No surprise, 63.7% were right that Man City would once again win the Prem. The top 4
- Man City (97.4%)
- Arsenal (87.2%)
- Liverpool (75.3%)
- Man United (70.1%)
Three of four ain’t bad - the fifth most popular pick from /r/soccer was Chelsea, with Aston Villa being the eighth highest ranked team.
The relegated teams
- Luton (81.3%)
- Bournemouth (56.9%)
- Sheffield United (31.1%)
Two out of three also ain’t bad - and shows just how much Bournemouth outdid expectations.
The Golden Boot winner
87.4% backed Haaland to retain his Golden Boot, in a pretty safe bet. Not many votes for second-placed Palmer, though…
La Liga
52.5% voted for Barcelona, 38.9% Real Madrid, and 8.9% Atletico - showing that Barcelona’s season was underwhelming our expectations.
The top 4
- Barcelona (92.1%)
- Real Madrid (90.9%)
- Atletico Madrid (89.1%)
- Real Sociedad (30.9%)
Girona really did come out of nowhere… not even in the top 10, here.
The relegated teams
The following three were doomed to the drop by /r/soccer:
- Alaves (54%)
- Cadiz (48.6%)
- Almeria (47%)
Two of three again, not bad - 20th placed team Granada had 17.6% of the vote, so we weren’t too far off. .
The Pichichi (Golden Boot) winner
59.3% voted for Robert Lewandowski to finish as La Liga top scorer, with 17.2% opting for Vinicius… and 13.5% chose Kylian Mbappe (who stayed with PSG).
Artem Dovbyk was not on our radar…
The German Bundesliga
84.3% backed Bayern Munich to win a twelfth consecutive Bundesliga title, with Dortmund receiving 11.9% of the vote share. Undefeated champions Bayer Leverkusen received less than 1% of the vote.
The top 4
The following top 4 were decided, by the popular vote:
- Bayern Munich (99.2%)
- Borussia Dortmund (98%)
- RB Leipzig (83.6%)
- Bayer Leverkusen 362 (56.7%)
Three out of four again isn’t bad - at least people thought Leverkusen were decent enough for Europe… but not many people saw Dortmund’s fifth place finish coming (2%, in fact).
The relegated teams
- Heidenheim (82.5%)
- Darmstadt (75.9%)
- VfL Bochum (59.8%)
Heidenheim were /r/soccer’s most popular pick to go down - showing just how remarkable their eighth place finish was. /r/soccer was right that Darmstadt and Bochum would finish in the bottom three - although the latter stayed up via the playoffs.
The Golden Boot winner
The winner of /r/soccer’s prediction for Bundesliga top scorer hadn’t even arrived in Germany at the time of voting - but 47.7% backed Harry Kane anyway, and were right with this slightly bold shout.
Italian Serie A
/r/soccer chose Inter with 32.6% of the vote - ahead of Milan (23.1%) and Juventus (19.8%) - and were right with this. Just 16.4% thought Napoli would retain their title - which proved prescient, given their disappointing year.
The top 4
/r/soccer did think Napoli would finish second though - Roma and Lazio were the next two most voted teams, with Atalanta (who finished fourth) not featuring.
- Inter (93.2%)
- Napoli (84%)
- Juventus (80.5%)
- Milan (78.2%)
The relegated teams
The race to the bottom appears just as hotly-contested as the race to the top in Italy. The following three teams were voted as most likely to go down:
- Frosinone (63.6%)
- Lecce (39.8%)
- Hellas Verona (37.4%)
Only one of three, here - Sassuolo and Salerntina completed the actual trio.
The Capocannoniere (Golden Boot) winner
47.9% predicted Victor Osimhen would win the Capocannoniere for the second consecutive year, whilst Lautaro Martinez came second with 15.9% of the vote - and was the actual winner.
Selected other European league champions
80.9% correctly backed PSG.
Ajax were /r/soccer’s favourites, with 46.4% of the vote - actual winners, PSV, were third with 22.5%.
Winners Sporting were the third pick, behind 65.2% for Benfica and 23% for Porto.
84.7% correctly backed even an Ange-less Celtic to have the better of the Old Firm.
A pretty split vote - but the plurarily of 34.8% who voted for Club Brugge were correct.
Over half, or 53.9%, correctly predicted Leicester to come straight back up as champions. The next two most popular picks were Southampton (who came up through the playoffs) and Leeds (who bottled it). The second placed team, Ipswich, unsurprisingly did not feature much in /r/soccer’s stakes.
| Part 3 - wildcard predictions |
|---|
Messi goals for Inter Miami*
At the time of the survey he was on 5, with minimum of 12 regular season games left - 45.2% predicted he’d score 15-20… but did not foresee his season being curtailed by injury, meaning in the end it was only 11.
First English Premier League manager to be sacked
This Premier League season was highly unusual in the relative scarcity of sackings - and /r/soccer’s choice of David Moyes survived all the way to the end of the season. Instead, it was Paul Heckingbottom of Sheffield United, who had been third with 11.6% of the vote.
(n.b. Lopetegui doesn’t count, as he left before the season started)
Club Harry Kane plays for at start of 2023/24 season (at Spurs at time of survey)
The over 60% who chose Bayern Munich had already been proved right, by the time the results were published.
Club Kylian Mbappe plays for at start of 2023/24 season (at PSG at time of survey)
57.9% correctly predicted that Mbappe would stay in Paris for this season - although finally will be at the Bernabeu, for 2024/25.
[Saudi Pro League top scorer for 2023/24 season](https:…
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