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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/Yo-Strategy-8651 on 2024-06-22 20:01:30+00:00.

Emmitt Smith’s career rushing yardage record appears to be one of the most unbreakable records of all time. His rushing TD record may also be safe but Derrick Henry could be the last RB with a realistic chance to break it. He would need 75 more TDs.

This would obviously require Henry to be among the outliers who are still productive from age 30 to 33, but he could not be in a more ideal situation on paper to maximize his chances. He’s likely to have by far the most red zone trips and yards before contact that he’s ever had in his career on the Ravens alongside Lamar. The impact of Henry with Lamar could be RB equivalent of Moss with Brady, or Kelce with Mahomes in terms of maximizing generational players to new career highs even at 30 years old. RBs who have played alongside Lamar have had by far the most yards before contact in the league, and Henry is one of the greatest backs ever at yards after contact.

I think it will be immediately obvious this year how realistic it is because he will probably need to have a couple of 20+ TD seasons. The only way he will possibly have that of course is if A) He’s clearly not washed and B) If that matchup nightmare on paper on Ravens turns out to work out in practice in terms of boost his production and efficiency.

As of now Derrick Henry is Tied for 13th all-time with 90 Rushing TDs.

He needs

11 TDs for 8th (Faulk/Alexander- 100)

17 TDs for 6th (Jim Brown- 106)

21 TDs for 5th (Walter Payton- 110)

31 TDs for 4th (Adrian Peterson- 120)

34 TDs for 3rd (Marcus Allen- 123)

56 TDs for 2nd (LaDainian Tomlinson - 145)

75 TDs for 1st (Emmitt Smith- 164)

1) How much of a chance do you give Derrick Henry of catching Emmitt Smith?

2) How high on the all-time list do you predict he will finish?

Provided he can hold off Father Time I think he’s actually got a realistic shot and the splits could something look like this.

24 TDs 2024 (Age 30)

20 TDs 2025 (Age 31)

18 TDs 2026 (Age 32)

13 TDs 2027 (Age 33)

For context, we’ve seen Priest Holmes break the single season TD record with 27 TDs at 30 years old. Mostert had 18 at 31 last year which was most of any RB since LT set current record in 2006. John Riggins had 24 TDs at 34 years old. If Henry can’t stiff arm Father Time for 3-4 more years, then I dont see another RB ever having a realistic chance again due to the way the position is used and viewed as disposable with RB by committee.