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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/guest_from_Europe on 2024-06-01 11:24:03+00:00.

Yesterday i put a link to the 25 year study of first round drafts. There were some complaints about it. Now i looked at more recent drafts and didn’t just search for All Pros or Pro Bowlers… but conclusions are very similar.

I went through first round of 2004-2018 drafts, sorted players by position and career quality. 2004 was taken as cutoff because of modern passing rules, recent drafts weren’t looked at, it’s still unclear how will young players do in the future. It didn’t matter if some player played for more teams, only his whole career is important. I looked mostly at weighted career AV (approximate value).

Player quality i sorted into:

  • busts (didn’t do much, had less than 20 weigtedAV on Pro Football Reference, these mostly didn’t last in NFL)
  • not worth in first round, should have been mid-round (below average starters, WR3 like Agholor, weak-link linemen, backup QBs such as Mariota, CBs like Apple, various journeymen)
  • above average starters (average QBs like Tannehill, Cutler, WR2-types, solid linemen that played for many seasons, good pass rushers… not All Pro level, wAV around 35-55 range)
  • stars (played around All Pro level, even if short career like Gurley, WR1 like Dez Bryant, linemen like Alex Mack, LB like Roquan Smith… in 55-90 wAV, no QBs in this group)
  • “franchise QBs” and HOF-level at other positions 100+ AV

Career AV numbers are skewed toward QBs and WRs, less to non-stats positions, so is draft position. It isn’t perfect, but i don’t know anything that compares LBs, DTs, OTs, WRs on the same scale. Defense has no yards, TDs,… If a player is still active i projected that they will add something to their career AV. AV overvalues QBs such as Winston, A. Smith,… i put them 1 group lower. Winston is a backup, Alex was average.

In 2004-2018 drafted in the first round were 44 QBs, 37 RBs, 54 OTs, 28 inside O-line, 16 TEs, 57 WRs, 49 DTs, 75 EDGE rushers (includes 3-4 DEs), 31 inside LBs, 57 CBs, 32 S. 480 total players. Complete busts were 22.3%, not worth in the first round 26.2%, 7.7% were HOF-level players and top QBs, 18.3% were stars. So only 26% total turned into what fans are excited about. 25.4% were in the middle group, above average starters, what should be expected.

About 50% of first round picks are wasted on busts or reached for players. Yet teams value them more than real players, rarely is a player traded for 1st round pick.

By position

QB 29.5% bust, 27.3% backup, 21.5% average QB starter, 22.7% franchise QB

RB 16.2% bust, 35% not worth it, 19% above average, 27% stars, 2.7% HOF

OT 11.1% bust, 22.2% not worth it, 35.3% above average, 26% stars, 5.5% HOF

iOL 14.3% bust, 14.3% not worth it, 32.2% above average, 28.5% stars, 10.7% HOF

TE 6.2% bust, 62.5% not worth it, 31% above average starter

WR 26.3% bust, 26.3% not worth it, 24.6% above average, 17.5% stars, 5.3% HOF

DT 24.5% bust, 30.5% not worth it, 22.5% above average, 16.3% stars, 6% HOF

EDGE 30.7% bust, 17.35% not worth it, 24% above average, 17.3% stars, 10.7% HOF

iLB 12.9% bust, 22.6% not worth it, 19% above average, 29% stars, 6.4% HOF

CB 29.8% bust, 22.8% not worth it, 24.6% above average, 17.5% stars, 5.3% HOF

S 18.7% bust, 27.5% not worth it, 22% above average, 18.7% stars, 3.1% HOF

Conclusions:

  • O-line has the lowest bust rate, it yields usually at least good starters. Both OT and iOL give more stars than not worthy picks. Those are statistically best picks.
  • WRs are very risky: WR3 is more probable than WR1.
  • RBs and TEs aren’t worth it to be selected high.
  • More than 50% of QBs will be backups or worse. Only 10 QBs in 15 drafts were “franchise-type” and that includes 3 in 2004, 2 in 2018. Slide the time scale for 1 year and it goes down. It’s about 0.5-0.6 such QBs/draft. Fans of 6 drafted QBs in 2024 shouldn’t be excited.
  • CBs also have huge bust rate, more than stars they produce.
  • EDGE are very much great or bad picks.
  • LBs are similar to O-line, but less important position, they are “safe picks”.
  • DT and S are significantly worse picks than inside LBs.
  • Each position except for EDGE rushers and CBs (which have more busts) has the most players in below average group, should have been drafted lower.

Most total busts were 23 edge rushers, 17 CBs, 15 WRs, 13 QBs.