This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/InVodkaVeritas on 2024-05-10 12:12:22+00:00.

I was reading Wilner’s article on the Calimony decision, and something struck me. It was the decided on $10 million because that was the maximum set by the previous meeting in 2022 when UCLA decided to leave the Pac-12. “$2-10 million” was what came out of that meeting, but one of the ideas discussed was to put whatever UCLA got from the Big Ten, and whatever Cal ended up getting from the Pac-12, together into one pot and then divide the money 50/50 so that both always got the same. Obviously that wasn’t what they decided to go with, but there is likely some regret over limiting themselves to a max of $10 million. Especially since, when they set the parameters of $2-$10 million, it was expected that the Pac-12 would stay together and Cal would be making $30+ per year instead of half that in the ACC.

Now, looking back at Pac-12 realignment and what happened:

  • Oregon’s legislature tried desperately to force through legislation that would require Oregon and OSU to stay in the same conference. Alas, their predecessors had made the decision to divide the organizational structure over the two schools, so they couldn’t be forced to stay together.
  • Washington, too, looked at legislation to keep Washington and WSU together, but they could not do so either.
  • Now, looking at Arizona, it was clear that Arizona wanted to leave the Pac-12 but couldn’t leave without ASU. That’s because their Board of Governors situation had them tied together, and one trying to leave without the other would have been messy at best. In the end, they left together rather than one after the other.

Now, turning to the ACC…

The UNC System Board of Governors added a decision making layer over conference alignment as a precautionary step. They don’t want UNC to leave the ACC while NC State gets cast to the wind the way that Cal, WSU, and OSU were in the Pac-12. NC State is unlikely to be completely cast to the wind, begging for CW scraps like WSU and OSU, but they are less likely to end up in the SEC or Big Ten like UNC is in a realignment scenario.

So we have the UNC BOG with the benefit of hindsight and a clear motivation to protect NC State.

They have watched the Pac-12 chaos unfold, and three schools be cast to the wind. They’ve also seen a BOG situation that worked to keep schools in the same state together. And now they’ve seen the UC Regents make a move that says they want their two premium schools to both be financially stable.

The UNC BOG have the roadmap to protect NC State:

Do what the UC Regents probably wish they did and declare that UNC and NC State will be required to pool and distribute their base media payouts equally, regardless of conference alignment.

If they do that and if UNC goes to the Big Ten and NC State ends up in the Big XVII, the money is evenly split and they both get the same.

  • (68.5+31.5)/2=50 million each.

This reduces the motivation for UNC to abandon the ACC, and motivates them to only go to the Big Ten or SEC if they can get NC State a spot with them too. Not that the move wouldn’t still be a financial upgrade for UNC, but the jump up to the Big Ten and SEC becomes a group decision to a degree. And it wouldn’t be much of an upgrade at all if they are only offered a partial share, and NC State doesn’t get a spot.

They would have to look out for NC State’s interests, even if it means ensuring that they have a spot in the Big 12 and going forward with the knowledge that their share will never be fully on the level of their new conference peers. This also provides a motivating factor for UNC to always advocate for supporting NC State in the future. Whether that means voting for them to join the conference down the line, or pushing to include the Big XVIII in any sort of future organizational structure should they break away from the NCAA.

If the UNC BOG is serious about protecting NC State, they will learn from watching the UC Regents and the fall of the Pac-12 and make it clear to UNC that NC State is a protected entity that the Tarheels cannot simply abandon to the wolves the way UCLA, Oregon, and Washington did to their in-state public school counterparts.