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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/practicalist on 2024-04-29 15:01:31.

A couple weeks before the draft I posted a r/nfl post, that attempted to predict the draft and the price a team may have to pay to move up in a trade. The 28 trades in the 2024 NFL draft were a fairly low amount, so there wasn’t as much interest in trades, nor as many suitors available to play off each other to bump up the premiums being asked.

None-the-less, using the draft trade value chart used in the previous post, we can estimate the value each team received in each of the 28 trades, calculate the premium paid, and then equate that to a pick in the draft.

With a pivot table, we can also sum up the net points gained or lost through the negotiations and see which GM or Front Office gained picks, and which lost picks in the draft through sheer negotiating prowess. If a team did not engage in any trades, they do not appear in the chart or list.

The TLDR charts are below, and a review of every draft day trade follows. If you would like to read the full article, you can do so here: https://nfllines.com/negotiating-the-draft-2024-nfl-draft-day-trades/

The Draft Trade Value Chart

AVG 3xHill-Johnson Trade Value Chart

Using the chart above for the pick values, here is every draft day trade with the following information included:

  • PICK - The pick that is being traded for.
  • VALUE - The chart value of the pick being traded for.
  • TRADED UP - The Team Trading Up.
  • POINTS RECEIVED - Total draft pick point value received.
  • NET POINTS - Draft points gained or lost in trade.
  • TRADED DOWN - The team that traded out of the slot.
  • POINTED RECEIVED - Total draft pick point value received.
  • NET POINTS - Draft points gained or lost in trade.
  • PREMIUM - The % premium paid to move up(This can be negative in a “poorly negotiated” trade).
  • PREMIUM VALUE - The draft pick value of the premium paid(This can be negative, in which case the pick is in bold). NOTE: The average is in bold because the average row itself is in bold. The premium paid on an average trade is 28 points, equivalent to the 163rd pick in the draft.

The 2024 NFL Draft Day Trades Chart

The 2024 NFL Draft Day Trades Chart

  • The average premium paid among the 28 trades was 9.21%.
  • The average amount of draft capital paid in premium was 28 points.  This is equivalent to the 163rd pick in the draft.
  • The highest premium paid in points was 173.2 points by the Rams to the Panthers to move up to pick #39.  The premium cost was equivalent to the 82nd pick.
  • The highest premium paid in %, was 124.72% paid for the 126th pick by the Lions to the Jets.  This involved paying for the pick by trading a future pick that is one round earlier.  The Eagles charged the Dolphins 93.66% to do the same deal on pick #120.
  • The “best deal” in points savings was the Packers saving 8.3 point less than fair for pick #111 from the Jets.  The pick was worth 78 points yet the Packers only paid 69.7 points in value.
  • The “best deal” in terms of % savings was the last trade in the draft.  The Lions saved almost 25% off fair value in trading for pick #189 from the Texans.

2024 NFL Draft Negotiated Points Chart

Here are the net points gained and lost by each team through negotiating trades. The net gain or loss is translated into the pick gained or lost through negotiating trades.

2024 NFL Draft Negotiated Points Chart

  • The Panthers gained 173 points in the trade with the Rams(their only move), and lost 29 points in all other trades.
  • The Cowboys gained all 104 points in one trade with the Lions.
  • The Eagles won the draft.  They paid and charged premiums multiple times and still came out significantly ahead.  The Jets, Commanders, Bills & Colts all excelled on draft day.
  • The Lions paid dearly but they are in win now mode.  The Rams pissed away all 173 points in one bold FU draft value move.  The Dolphins got fleeced by the Eagles.  But the big loser has to be Atlanta who screwed up pick #8 AND made a poor trade with the Cardinals for pick #35.  I am not even sure they picked the best DL at #35 given who was available.
  • Teams should NEVER deal a future pick that is one round earlier than the pick they want in the current draft.  These trades are the most costly and probably have the least chance of success compared to the premium required(many times close to 100%).
  • Teams should almost never trade for any picks beyond round 3, and definitely avoid trading for any 5th through 7th round picks.  The premiums paid on all these late round moves are significant.  They may not amount to many points, but they require significantly high premiums on hit or miss kind of prospects.

First-round trades

For each trade you will see the picks each team received, the value of the picks, and the premium paid if any.  The players selected with the main picks are posted.  If the trade was worthy of comment, one was attempted. The value of the pick being traded for is in (parenthesis) in the title.

Minnesota Trades Up From #11 to #10 (1203.5)

Vikings Receive: #10 (1203.5) + #203 (11.1) = 1214.6

Jets Receive: #11 (1162) + #129 (48.5) + #157 (30.8) = 1241.3

Premium paid = 26.7pts (2.22%)

With the No. 10 pick, Minnesota selected Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.

With the No. 11 pick, the Jets took OT Olu Fashanu from Penn State.

Minnesota Trades Up From #23 to #17 (919.0)

Vikings Receive: #17 (919) = 919.0

Jaguars Receive: #23 (747.5) + #167 (48.5) + 2025 3rd (119.1) + 2025 4th (49.7) = 964.8

Premium paid = 45.8pts (4.98%)

With the No. 17 pick, Minnesota selects LB Dallas Turner.

With the No. 23 pick, Jacksonville selected WR Brian Thomas Jr.

Detroit Trades Up From #29 to #24 (725.5)

Lions Receive: #24 (725.5) + 2025 7th (3.0) = 728.5

Cowboys Receive: #29 (623) + #73 (210) = 833

Premium paid = 104.5pts (14.4%)

With the No. 24 pick, Detroit selects CB Terrion Arnold. 

This was the most costly 1st round move, but Arnorld could be worth it if he is a lock-down corner as advertised.

With the No. 29 pick, Dallas selected OT Tyler Guyton. 

Good negotiating by Dallas.  This always pays off somewhere down the line with a pick that never should have been ending up being a pro bowler.

Kansas City Trades Up From #32 to #28 (643.5)

Chiefs Receive: #28 (643.5) + #133 (45.3) + #233 (3.5)= 692.3

Bills Receive: #32 (571) + #95 (120) + #248 (2.0) = 693

Premium paid = 0.7pts (0.1%)

With the No. 28 pick, Kansas City selects WR Xavier Worthy. 

If KC called Buffalo and said they were going to take a guy with 4.2 speed for Mahomes…and Buffalo said, “We like what we are hearing, tell us more”…then this is borderline RICO case material.

Buffalo trades #32 to Carolina.  Not sure why Buffalo made such a fair trade with the team they have to beat…a fine tip of the cap to them for “fairness” I guess.

Carolina Trades Up From #33 to #32 (571.0)

Panthers Receive: #32 (571) + #200 (13.2)= 584.2

Bills Receive: #33 (560) + #141 (38.8) = 598.8

Premium paid = 14.6pts (2.56%)

With the No. 32 pick, Carolina selects WR Xavier Legette.

With the No. 33 pick, Buffalo selected WR Keon Coleman.  And then they charge the 2-15 NFC Panthers a premium…

DRAFT DAY 2 TRADES

LA Chargers Move Up From #37 to #34 (542.5)

Chargers Receive: #34 (542.5) + #157 (30.8)= 573.3

Patriots Receive: #37 (508) + #110 (80.5) = 588.5

Premium paid = 15.2pts (2.80%)

With the No. 34 pick, LA Chargers select WR Ladd McConkey.

With the No. 37 pick, New England selected WR Ja’Lynn Polk.

Atlanta Trades Up From #43 to #35 (530.0)

Falcons Receive: #35 (530.0) + #186 (17.5)= 547.5

Cardinals Receive: #43 (442) + #79 (183) = 625

Premium paid = 77.5pts (14.62%)

With the No. 35 pick, Atlanta selects DE Ruke Orhorhoro.  This was pricey considering who was still on the board.

With the No. 43 pick, Arizona selected DB Max Melton.

LA Rams Trade Up From #52 to #39 (484.5)

Rams Receive: #39 (484.5) = 484.5

Panthers Receive: #52 (353.5) + #155 (31.2) + 2025 2nd (273.0) = 657.7

Premium paid = 173.2pts (35.75%)

With the No. 39 pick, LA Rams selects DT Braden Fiske and continues to give the virtual middle finger to draft capital.

Carolina traded the No. 52 pick to Indianapolis.

Philadelphia Trades Up From #50 to #40 (473.5)

Eagles Receive: #40 (473.5) + #78 (188.5) + #152 (31.6)= 693.6

Commanders Receive: #50 (372.5) + #53 (344) + #161 (28.5)= 745

Premium paid = 51.4pts (10.86%)

With the No. 40 pick, Philadelphia selects DB Cooper DeJean

With the No. 50 pick, Washington selected CB Mike Sainristil.  Commanders get Roseman to pay a 11% premium.

Something is terribly wrong.  Check Howie.  Chec…

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