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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/practicalist on 2024-04-08 14:49:18.

In this post we will look at the options for all of the draft slots that appear to be in play for 1st round trades.  The draft slots in play are a combination of teams that are open to trading down and projected slot position for the best player at each position.  Essentially, what slot would a team have to trade into to be able to draft the best available player at a chosen position.

To do this we are going to use the AVG-3xHill-Johnson Draft Trade Chart from the previous reddit post.  It is simply a synthesis of the two most popular trade value charts used by NFL teams. If you would like to read the full article it is available here: 2024 NFL Draft - 1st Round Trades For Every Team.

AVG-3xHill-Johnson Draft Trade Chart

Strength of the 2024 NFL Draft Class

Most mock drafts and draft reviews say that 2024 is a particularly strong draft through pick #150.

Last post I included a chart with draft capital sorted by team.  To try to see which teams are well positioned in the Top 150 picks, I calculated each teams:

  • draft capital through pick #150
  • the % of their capital within the first 150 picks
  • amount of picks that are in the top 150

Draft Capital Through Pick #150 & Amount of Picks.

2024 NFL Trade Chart

In the chart below you will see a series of columns:

  • Team – Name of Team
  • Need – Position of Greatest Need
  • Jump to Slot – The draft slot they would need to trade up to.
  • Value of Pick – The value of the pick owned
  • Points Short – How many points short the team is after offering their first round pick(s).
  • Compensation – The compensation needed to move to the desired slot.
  • Offers – The amount of teams wanting to move into the slot
  • Status – Team build status:
    • Arm- Needs QB
    • Recruit – Armed, needs more players
    • Weaponize – Armed, looking for specific piece(s)
  • First Off Board – Estimated draft slot that the first player from that position will be chosen

2024 NFL Draft - 1st Round Trade Offers For Every Team

Best Available Draft Slot Positions

The projected slot for the best player at each position is as follows:

  • QB – #1
  • WR – #4
  • OT – #5
  • Edge/OLB – #8
  • TE – #10
  • DT – #13
  • CB – #15
  • C/G – #26
  • ILB, Safety & RB – Round 2

A few thoughts on the projected 1st player at the position draft slots:

  • WR & OT could easily slip to #5 & #6 thru #9.  I don’t think WR is slipping past #5, but OT could slide as a second WR could easily come off the board at #6.  I also wouldn’t be surpised if some team panics and jumps up to take the 5th QB.  As we have seen in recent draft history, teams tend to reach for QBs and tend to overvalue them in the draft.
  • TE – While the best TE in the draft might be worthy of a top 10 selection, it is hard to project which team in the top 10, or a team outside trading up, who would prefer to select the TE as opposed to another position or trading out.  NY Jets could use a TE, and they sit at #10, but I haven’t heard them directly connected to Bowers yet.
  • DT & CB could be reversed, in that a CB goes before a DT.  The first at both positions probably go between #10 – #15.

Paying A Premium

The one thing that is impossible to know is the premium a given team will ask above and beyond a fair trade.  The major influence in a premium is often the number of suitors.  With no other teams making an offer, a team may have to “settle” for a fair trade.  With multiple teams making offers, the premium becomes, in essence, the tie breaker.  In this case numerous teams are willing to make a fair trade, so which team is willing to pay a price above and beyond fair, and how far?

The other influence would be the perceived value of the intended target player.  If the player to be drafted via trade is seen as being transformational, or significantly better than current and former peers at the position, an additional premium is going to be asked.

Apparently Caleb Williams is being spoken about with those types of adjectives, so the Bears may be able to extract a premium based on Williams perceived, or perhaps measured when it comes to the pre draft process, talent.  Harrison is being spoken about as this type of receiver, so again the #4 slot may require that an additional premium be paid.

Estimating A Fair Premium

I realize that “fair premium” is a bit of an oxymoron, but it is meant in a sense of trying to estimate what kind of premium could be extracted in certain cases.  Here is a guess:

  • Premium Player (10%) – QB(25%), which decreases in later rounds.

In round 2, the player based premium charged may only be 5%/10%. By round 3, its probably close to nothing.

  • Per Interested Suitor (5%),.  This probably stays constant as 5% on top of a pick worth 50 points is only 2.5 points in premium, or like the last pick in the draft.  With only 1 team interested, there would be no premium.
  • For example, a team trading up to grab a QB in round 2 may only pay a premium along the lines of  QB(10%) and a per suitor charge of 5%.  In later rounds the position premium fees drop to nothing, as do the amount of suitors for a later pick.
  • The premium is always based on the point value of the pick being traded.  If a premium of 30% is required, we can simply multiply the point value of the pick by 1.3 to find out the total amount of point required, premium included.

With some research and a math wiz or two, we could assign unique premium %’s to each position/round/amount of suitors.  However, for simplicity, and to set some kind of baseline for testing, let’s stick with the simple pecentages above.

Given the example of the Bears, who have 6 offers for a Premium QB at #1, the estimated premium the Bears could expect is:

Premium QB(25%) + 6 * (5%) = 55%

3000 * (1.55) = 4,650 or 1650 more draft points than a fair trade. The 1650 point premium is worth about the #4 pick.  This is on top of whatever captial it would require to get to 3000 points(the “fair trade” offer).

To give you an idea of how many points that is, the Bears have the most draft points in the 2024 NFL Draft,  4515 points.  Thus, the Bears do not have enough draft points to trade for the #1 pick plus a premium, and they own it.  I know this make no sense in reality, but this is theoretical(I made all these premium percentages up remember).

Contrast this with 2 offers for the #8 pick, projected to be the best Edge player.  Atlanta could expect the following fair premium:

Premium Edge(10%) + 2 * (5%) = 20%

1309 * 120%  = 1570.8 or 271 points more than a fair trade.  The 271 point premium is equivalent to a high 3rd round pick.

2024 NFL Draft Capital - Sorted Most to Least

Evaluating The NFL Draft Trade Offers

With all that said about premiums, for the evaluation of the proposed trades below, we will always offer the “fair deal”.  The fair deal being defined as offering the amount of points the draft slot position is worth with no premium.  Think of this as the opening offer from the team looking to trade up.

After each fair deal is proposed, a final premium deal is offered.  This is the selected fair deal with the calculated premium applied.

Chicago Bears – Offers For The #1 Pick

Premium QB(25%) + 6 * (5%) = 55%

3000 * (155%) = 4,650 or 1650 more draft points than a fair trade. The 1650 point premium is worth about the #4 pick.

The Fair Offers

WASHINGTON OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

  • #2 pick
  • #40 pick
  • 2025 3rd round pick

NEW ENGLAND OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

  • #3 pick
  • #34 pick
  • 2025 1st round pick

NY GIANTS OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

  • #6
  • #47
  • #70
  • 2025 1st & 2nd

MINNESOTA OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

  • #11
  • #23
  • #108
  • 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd

DENVER OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

  • #12
  • #81
  • #144
  • 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd
  • 2026 1st

LAS VEGAS OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

  • #13
  • #44
  • #77
  • 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd
  • 2026 2nd

The Premium Offer For The #1 Pick

Washington Offers ALL Their 2024 Draft Picks + 2025 1st Round Pick

Let’s go full Ditka right out of the gate.  The Bears have 6 offers for the #1 pick.  The Commanders, Patriots, Giants, Vikings, Broncos, & Raiders are all looking for quarterbacks.  All of the offers are above are worth approximately 3000 points.  The Bears should ask for a high premium based on the scouting reports on Williams.

Above that premium was calculated at 55%, so Chicago should be looking for offers around 4500+ points if they are to trade out.  This is a massive amount of draft capital, which is why there have been few mock drafts predicting that Chicago will trade the pick.  If anything, trading Fields signified that Chicago is going to select Williams unless overwhelmed by an offer.

Washington has the 2nd m…

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