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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/defaultedup on 2024-04-02 06:45:31.

I’ll preface this post by saying that I’m not a statistician or an expert in mathematical formulas, just a football fan. I’m sure anyone with any significant background in math can identify plenty of things that I did incorrectly, but, this was more for entertainment than anything else.

I recently watched one of those old NFL Network Top 10 lists, “Top 10 Devastating Losses,” and I was baffled to see that the 1998 NFCCG between the Vikings and Falcons was merely an honorable mention. I decided that, for the hell of it, I would try to create my own (quasi-objective) formula for determining what actually is the most heartbreaking loss in history. Since I didn’t envision a scenario in which a regular season loss would be the most heartbreaking loss ever, I limited this analysis to playoff games.

I structured this extremely loosely (and I’m using that term generously) off of PFR’s Hall of Fame Monitor. My formula did not employ any advanced techniques and consisted of pretty basic math. I decided to compute a base score for every loss before considering a set of aggravating/mitigating factors that would determine the magnitude of the loss. I call this formula quasi-objective because, while it does take into consideration factors such as margin of defeat and betting odds, a great deal of the values assigned to these factors are values that I created. I did try to remain impartial and present my reasons for assigning the values that I did below, but at the end of the day, reasonable minds can probably differ about any of the decisions that I made.

I decided to sort the games into five categories: (1) blown leads, (2) special teams disasters, (3) last second shockers (a catch-all designed to include any heartbreaking losses with iconic plays/mistakes in the final minutes that didn’t necessarily fit into another category), (4) upsets, and (5) robbed by the refs. For some, there is some overlap. For example, the 1998 NFCCG could be either a special teams disaster or an upset, and Gary Anderson definitely wasn’t the only reason that the Vikings lost. However, since the infamous play from that game was the missed FG, I labeled it a special teams disaster. On the other hand, while Brandon Bostick’s kick recovery is an iconic play from the 2014 NFCCG, so many things went wrong for Green Bay to lose when they were leading 19-7 with five minutes left that I labeled that game a blown lead.

I assigned each category a value: special teams disasters, upsets, and last second shockers were worth 8 points, while blown leads were worth 10 and robbed by the refs worth 20. I reasoned that a blown lead is slightly worse than the other three since that implies control of the game at some point by the losing team, while robbed by the refs was way worse than the others since the outcome was altered by something off the field and therefore beyond the control of the team. I also assigned the losing team’s playoff seed a value, with higher values corresponding to higher seeds: 1 seed = 10 points, 2 seed = 8 points, 3 seed = 6 points, 4 seed = 4 points, 5 seed = 2 points, 6/7 seed = 1 point.

When deciding what games to include, I had to exercise some discretion. I tried to adhere to the categories pretty closely, meaning some bad losses ultimately didn’t make the cut. Games such as the 1990 NFCCG, the 2006 NE-SD AFC Divisional Game, and the 1986 CLE-NYJ AFC Divisional Game, while bad losses, weren’t included for consideration.

The games considered were:

Blown Leads: SB 51, 2023 NFCCG, 2014 NFCCG, 2012 NFCCG, 2022 LAC-JAX Wild Card, 2013 KC-IND Wild Card, 2002 SF-NYG Wild Card, 2002 CLE-PIT Wild Card, 1992 BUF-TEN Wild Card

Special Teams Disasters: SB 25, 2011 NFCCG, 2011 AFCCG, 1998 NFCCG, 2021 SF-GB Divisional, 2004 SD-NYJ Divisional, 1995 IND-KC Divisional, 2018 PHI-CHI Wild Card, 2015 SEA-MIN Wild Card

Last Second Shockers: SB 49, SB 43, SB 23, 2009 NFCCG, 2007 NFCCG, 1986/87 AFCCG, 1981 NFCCG, 2021 KC-BUF Divisional, 2017 MIN-NO Divisional, 2014 BAL-DEN Divisional, 2011 SF-NO Divisional, 1980 DAL-ATL Divisional, 1975 DAL-MIN Divisional, 2015 CIN-PIT Wild Card, 1999 TEN-BUF Wild Card

Upsets: SB 42, SB 36, SB 3, 2019 TEN-BAL Divisional, 2011 NYG-GB Divisional, 2007 SD-IND Divisional, 1996 JAX-DEN Divisional

Robbed by the Refs: 2018 NFCCG, 2017 AFCCG, 2014 DAL-GB Divisional, 2001 NE-OAK Divisional

To compute a base score: Seed Value*(Margin of Defeat + Betting Odds + Category Value)

In this formula, a higher score indicates a more heartbreaking loss. Therefore, if the losing team entered the game as a 5 point favorite, the value input for the Betting Odds variable was (+) 5. On the other hand, if they entered the game as 5 point underdogs, the value input was (-) 5. After computing these base scores, the 2021 TEN-BAL Divisional Game had the highest score with a 342, followed by the 2011 NYG-GB game at 332 and SB 3 at 300. Clearly, at this point the formula heavily weighed towards teams with good records losing in upsets by big margins. I then moved on to the next set of factors, each with an accompanying value that was added to the base score:

  • Losing team had no prior Super Bowl wins (+10)
  • Losing team missed playoffs next season (+2)
    • If the losing team missed the playoffs the following season, 2 points were added to the base sum. However, if the losing team missed the playoffs for the next 5-9 consecutive seasons, the value added was 6. If the losing team missed the playoffs for the next 10-14 consecutive seasons, the value added was 10. If the losing team missed the playoffs for the next 15 or more consecutive seasons, the value added was 20.
  • Losing team won the SB the next season (-2)
  • Losing team had the NFL MVP (+2)

I then moved to the next set of factors. I thought that these more so than the others really exacerbated the loss, so rather than add these values to the revised base score, the revised score was multiplied by the sum of the following:

  • (Lost in WC (+2)/Div (+4)/CCG (+8)/SB (+10)) + (Blew Lead of 17+ (+2)/20+ (+4)/25+ (+6)/30+ (+8))

The final factor to consider was the “historically cursed franchise” factor. I remembered reading a Bill Simmons article on Grantland once where he argued that only a cold weather team could have the single most heartbreaking loss ever. I call this the historically cursed franchise factor: if the losing team is a cold weather team associated with years of agonizing, painful playoff losses, then the heartbreaking nature of the loss hits that much harder. I excluded any team that has won a SB (so no Jets). The franchises that I determined were “historically cursed” ended up being: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Minnesota, pre-Mahomes Kansas City, and Detroit (maybe not as many infamous playoff losses, but Detroit is the quintessential “cursed” team). If the losing team was historically cursed, the total sum of all earlier calculations was multiplied by 5.

After performing these calculations, the formula determined that the single most heartbreaking loss in NFL history with a score of 9200 was the 1998 Vikings-Falcons NFC Championship Game. Is this evidence that I subconsciously created a formula to confirm my pre-existing opinion that this was the most heartbreaking loss ever? Maybe. But is any list that doesn’t have this game in the top 3 at minimum really correct anyway? In a close second place with a score of 9040 was the 1986/87 Browns-Broncos AFC Championship Double Header (I think that these games are only understandable as an indivisible double header of games, rather than two separate games, so I combined the values and divided by 2 to calculate the base sum). In third with a score of 8500 was the Bills-Giants SB 25. The rest of the top 10 with the score noted in parentheses:

    1. 1995 Chiefs-Colts AFC Divisional Game (4540)
    1. 1975 Vikings-Cowboys NFC Divisional Game (4040)
    1. 2023 Lions-49ers NFC Championship Game (3700)
    1. SB 23 Bengals-49ers (3200)
    1. SB 3 Colts-Jets (3000)
    1. 2009 Vikings-Saints NFC Championship Game (2880)
    1. SB 36 Rams-Patriots (2540)

Yes, 28-3 shockingly did not make the top 10. For what it’s worth, SB 51 received the highest score (2272) before the historically cursed franchise enhancement was applied, the result of being a 1 seed with the league MVP that lost a massive lead in the Super Bowl. Moreover, many justifiably consider the Falcons a historically cursed franchise, and if SB 51 received the enhancer, it would indeed receive the highest score at a meter-breaking 11,360. However, I stuck to the Grantland principle and limited the enhancement to cold weather teams. SB 3 and 42 were the only non-historically cursed franchise losses to make the Top 10, both being huge favorites that were upset in the Super Bowl. The bottom five were:

    1. 2011 Ravens-Patriots AFC Championship Game (240)
    1. 2022 Chargers-Jaguars AFC Wild Card Game (232)
    1. 2018 Bears-Eagles NFC Wild Card (190)
    1. 2017 Saints-Vikings NFL Divisional Game (120)
    1. 2002 Giants-49ers NFC Wild Card Game (108)

Edit: upon review, SB 3, 36, and 42 (2350) actually received higher scores than SB 51 pre- cursed franchise enhancement

Edit Part 2: As was pointed out in the comments, the Chiefs actually did win SB 4 (apologies to Hank Stram for the oversight). However, I’m leaving Chiefs-Colts 1995 at No. 4 because if you don’t think that’s a top 5 playoff loss ever go say the name “Lin Elliott” in Kansas City