This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/practicalist on 2024-03-17 16:20:49.
I was tinkering with the 4 major NFL Draft Trade Charts to see which is best for analyzing the value of pre draft trades. The Fitzgerald-Spielberger & Chase Stuart charts had some issues which I outline in the full article, so I ended up focusing on the Jimmy Johnson chart & the Rich Hill chart.
Full article:
(The full article posts all 4 charts, and goes into more analysis about chart comparison and creation)
Combining the Hill & Johnson Charts
There are some differences between the two. To try to sum up in one sentence: The Johnson chart values early picks more and later picks less than the Hill chart, and the Hill chart is on a different scale(the first pick is worth 1000 as opposed to 3000 in the Johnson chart).
The original authors did all the hard work, so I won’t be introducing any new studies, concepts or datasets. Since it is possible that two teams negotiating could be using different charts, let’s just try to smooth out the two charts and get them in sync using the most basic mathematical operations.
To synthesize the two charts, I simply multipled every value on the Hill chart by 3, then averaged out the Johnson & Hill chart values for every pick. This left the #1 pick value at 3000 as it is on the Johnson chart. I’ve tried to keep the new chart updated with the pre draft trades and the resultant chart is seen below:
The AVG-3xHill-Johnson Chart
AVG3xHill-Johnson NFL Draft Trade Chart
The Value of 2025+ Draft Picks
There seemed to be two major schools of though on the value of picks beyond 2024. One was that the pick was devalued a full round. The other was that the pick was worth the value of the last non playoff spot, pick 18 of the round.
Devaluing a pick an entire round seemed a bit harsh, while giving the value of the 18th pick would mean that the trade would end up being under water 14 of 32 times(the pick lands at 19 or above). Thus in keeping with the simplest solution, I decided to average out the two values.
Below each column you will see:
- The average value of the round(ex. The average value of a 2nd round pick is 392.7 pts)
- The value of the 18th pick in the round(The 18th pick in round 1 is worth 881 pts)
- The Avg Future (boxed) - This is the sum of the 18th pick of the traded round and the average value of the round below divided by 2. Thus the value of a 2025 1st round pick is:
- (881 + 392.7) / 2 = 636.8 pts
- 2025 round 2 pick worth 273 pts…2025 round 7 pick is worth 3 points.
- This same methodology was used on both the Johnson & Hill Charts to create future draft values for each round for both respective charts. Note that the Johnson and 3xHill charts have not been updated with recent traded picks, but we are interested in values not team order.
The Johnson Chart
Johnson Chart with Future Draft pick values
The 3xHill Chart
3xHill Chart with Future Draft pick values
Analyzing Trades Using The AVG-3xHill-Johnson Chart
Since this is a synthesis of the two charts, I am simply naming it after the function performed on the charts. I suppose (3xHill+Johnson)/2 Chart would work, but its a bit clunkier(if that is possible).
To test it, let’s see what it comes up with for the values of recent trades and the estimated player values for players traded. The first set of values will be from the AVG-3xHill-Johnson chart. Below will be the 3x Hill & Johnson values. Note that the associate pick value is from the chart the value comes from.
Minnesota Gets Pick #23 from Houston for picks #42, #188, & 2025 2nd round pick
AVG 3xHill-Johnson Chart Values:
Minnesota – Pick 23 = 747.5
vs
Houston – Pick 42 = 453.0
Pick 188 = 17.1
2025 2nd Round Pick = 273.0
TOTAL = 743.1 to Houston
Johnson Values:
Minnesota = 760
Houston = 480 + 16.2 + 291(Johnson estimated future value) = 787.2
3xHill Values:
Minnesota = 735
Houston = 426 + 18 + 255(3xHill estimated Future Values) = 699
Results
Let’s preface this by saying for future draft picks we are going to use the calculated avg future value for each chart. Each chart came up with a slightly different outcome.
- The Johnson chart had the trade as a slight win for Houston.
- The 3xHill chart has it as a slight win for Minnesota.
- The AVG-3xHill-Johnson chart has it almost dead even.
Let’s test it on last year’s blockbuster trade for the 2023 #1 pick between Chicago & Panthers.
Carolina Gets 2023 Pick #1 from Chicago for picks #9, #61, & 2024 1st & 2nd round picks
AVG 3xHill-Johnson Chart Values:
Carolina – Pick 1 = 3000
vs
Chicago – Pick 9 = 453.0
Pick 61 = 17.1
2025 1st round pick = 636.8
2025 2nd Round Pick = 273.0
D.J. Moore = 559.7 (33rd pick)
Total = 3000
Johnson Values:
Carolina = 3000
Chicago = 1350 + 282 + 658(future 1st) + 291(future 2nd) + 409(D.J. Moore = 49th pick) = 3000
3xHill Values:
Carolina = 3000
Chicago = 1161 + 268 + 615(future 1st) + 255(future 2nd) + 709 (D.J. Moore = 24th Pick) = 3000
Results
Here we are measuring the value that each chart put on D.J. Moore.
- The 3xHill chart placed the value of Moore to be equivalent to the 24th pick
- The AVG-3xHill-Johnson chart placed the value of Moore to be equivalent to the 33rd pick
- The Johnson chart placed the value of Moore to be equivalent to the 49th pick
Here we see the 3xHill chart placed more value on Moore(24th pick) than the Johnson chart(49th pick). Again the new AVG-3xHill-Johnson Chart split the difference and placed Moore’s value as the 1st pick in the 2nd round.
Since the two test cases above seemed to have passed the smell test, let’s use the new chart to evaluate all the 2024 pre-draft trades. In addition to the new chart values, I will include the values from the Johnson & 3xHill charts as well.
2024 Pre Draft Trades & Estimated Player Values
Brian Burns to NY Giants (524 points) Value = 36th pick
Carolina receives picks #39(484.5) & #141(38.8) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 501 pts (36th pick)
Johnson – 545.5 pts (36th pick)
Calvin Ridley to Titans (183 points) Value = 79th pick
Atlanta receives picks #79(183.0) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 171 pts (79th pick)
Johnson – 195 pts (79th pick)
Carlton Davis to Lions (108.0 points) Value = 99th pick
Tampa Bay receives picks #92(130.5) in the 2024 draft.
Detroit receives pick #201 in 2024 & a 2025 6th round pick.
3xHill – 129 – (15 +10) = 104 pts (101st pick)
Johnson – 132 – (11+7) = 114pts (97th pick)
Sam Howell to Seahawks (102 points) Value = 100th pick
Seattle receives picks #102(97) & #179(21.9) in the 2024 draft. (118.9)
Detroit receives pick #78(188.5) & #152(31.8) in the 2024 draft.(220.3)
3xHill – Seattle 126pts Detroit 210pts Howell Value = 84pts (111th pick)
Johnson – Seattle 111.8pts Detroit 230.6pts Howell Value = 118.8pts (96th pick)
Keenan Allen to Bears (81 points) Value = 110th pick
Chargers receives picks #110(81) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 87 pts (110th pick)
Johnson – 74 pts (110th pick)
Jerry Jeudy to Browns (54 points) Value = 125th pick
Denver receives picks #136(43) & #203(11.1) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 60 pts (125th pick)
Johnson – 48.2 pts (124th pick)
Kenny Pickett to Eagles (54 points) Value = 125th pick
Philadelphia receives pick #120(61.5)
Pittsburgh receives picks #98(109.5) in the 2024 draft & (2) 2025 7th round picks(3+3=6)
3xHill – Philadelphia 69pts Pittsburgh 117 pts Pickett Value = 48 pts(135th pick)
Johnson – Philadelphia 54pts Pittsburgh 100 pts Pickett Value = 46 pts(126th pick)
Morgan Moses to Jets (39 points) Value = 141st pick
Baltimore receives pick #113(74.5) & #218(6.6)
Jets receive pick #135(43.3)
3xHill – Baltimore 90pts NYJ 48 Moses Value = 42pts (141st pick)
Johnson – Baltimore 72.2pts NYJ 38.5 Moses Value = 33.7pts (145th pick)
Ryan Bates to Bears (36.5 points) Value = 144th pick
Buffalo receives picks #144(36.5) in the 2024 draft.
3xHill – 39 pts (144th pick)
Johnson – 34 pts (144th pick)
Mac Jones to Jaguars (16 points) Value = 193rd pick
**New England receives pick #193(16.1) in the 2024 dra…
Content cut off. Read original on old.reddit.com/…/using_a_synthesized_johnson_hill…