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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/MasonL52 on 2024-02-08 01:11:51.
Guide to Teambuilding - 24.1
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields was taken 11th overall in 2021 after the team moved up in the first round to select the Ohio State prospect. In three years Justin Fields has left much to be desired but has equally shown impressive stretches of play. Ultimately the Bears haven’t seen the growth as a passer you want to see to commit to him long-term and now with an incredibly talented crop of QBs to choose from it makes more sense to reset the timeline around the QB with a solid foundation and new offensive coaching staff. In this scenario the team should do right by Fields and find a trade partner that will give him one more chance to become a franchise QB.
P1. The Fields Question - What’s Justin Field’s value and do the Bears have more to gain by trading him or keeping him?
1.1 - The argument for keeping Fields
A lot of Bears fans remain skeptical to move on from Fields for yet another rookie QB. It is a sound sentiment to wish for continuity and development for their current QB. Armed with the 1st and 9th-overall picks in the draft the Bears could add an incredible talent in Marvin Harrison Jr as well as a top pass protector or defensive talent, bolstering the roster to be competitive in a top heavy NFC North.
It is a tantalizing scenario to add the top positional player in the draft and instantly form one of the best WR duos in the league with Marvin Harrison Jr. joining veteran DJ Moore. Even with Fields’ passing issues this tandem could be so lethal that it would be hard not to find success. Then using the 9th pick on one of the best defensive prospects would help set up a defensive that started to find its stride in the back half of last season after adding EDGE Montez Sweat. Another rusher like Dallas Turner or Jared Verse could go a long way in setting an impressive foundation for the Bears. The Bears have a chance to add an elite prospect to both sides of the ball and really build the roster for future success.
However, by passing on a QB the Bears would firmly commit to Justin Fields. It seems like a fair assumption to think they would improve and play themselves out of a top-10 pick next year, and without an extra 1st-round pick they would have to be very aggressive in pursuit of a new QB if Fields still couldn’t improve to the necessary level.
The Bears have an excellent chance to find a true franchise QB. Justin Fields may have the upside to do so, but at this time he hasn’t shown the consistency for the franchise to take such a gamble when their pick of a QB prospect is available. The obvious choice for now is to go with USC’s Caleb Williams and that’s the assumption I’ll make until the Bears decide otherwise.
1.2 - Historical Precedent of a Trade
Justin Fields has certainly retained some value with excellent spurts of productivity but the Bears moving on at all will decrease his value. Trying to find a precedent didn’t lead to much clarity but I did find three similar situations.
In 2019 the Arizona Cardinals moved on from former 1st-round pick Josh Rosen when they also fell into the 1st-overall pick and selected another QB in Kyler Murray. Rosen was coming off a horrendous rookie season but the pitiful Cardinals roster gave him some leeway in value, leading to the Dolphins taking a chance on him by sending the Cardinals a 2nd-round pick and future 5th. Fields has proven himself more than Rosen had but part of the value came from controlling Rosen for four more seasons cheaply. Once Fields is traded his new team will have to make a long-term decision on him in a limited amount of time.
In the same season the Tennessee Titans traded a 7th-round pick and future 4th to take a chance on Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill and Fields are similar prospects with incredibly athletic upside built into their games but were limited as passers early in their career. The Titans under OC Arthur Smith resurrected Tannehill’s career leading to a career-best season in 2019. The major difference is that Tannehill would already be in year-eight of his career and was coming off multiple injuries. The Dolphins were ready to move on and that decreased his value but the team still added a future 4th-round pick.
The closest precedent I could find came in 2009 and also involved the Bears. When the Denver Broncos hired Josh McDaniels he wanted to gut the roster and form it in his own vision. Jay Cutler, like Fields, was a 1st-round pick taken 11th overall and both would be going into their fourth season. Cutler had more success than Fields but both failed to make the playoffs with their first team and had questions about if they could reach their upside. The Broncos sent a 5th-round pick on top of Jay Cutler to the Bears for the 18th and 84th picks in the draft as well as a future 1st.
Oddly enough I still think Josh Rosen’s value will be the closest to what Fields will be worth. Fields has the upside some team will be willing to take a chance on but the risk of him flaming out and never progressing as a passer will make every team consider other options. Rosen at the time seemed like he could be salvaged away from the Cardinals, whereas Cutler was a more proven commodity and still boasted potential.
If there’s a bidding war my assumption is Fields is worth a high value day two draft pick plus a day three selection. The value of that day two pick will likely be the difference unless a team is willing to add a 4th instead of a 5th or multiple 6ths.
1.3 - What will the ideal landing spot for Justin Fields have?
- QB Purgatory - Either a QB who’s clearly not the future or no QB at all. That team will not be in a strong position to add a strong QB through the draft or free agency.
- Plentiful Mid-round Draft Stock - Being low on day two picks may make trading for Fields risky if you can’t build up the roster around him. Having an extra 2nd or 3rd would make paying for him a lot more appealing.
- An Offensive Head Coach - This isn’t a requirement but once Fields joins his new team it’ll be his third new scheme in four seasons. If Fields stands a chance he’ll need to find some consistency and a team with an offensive mind will give him the best chance possible.
Justin Fields will have two years remaining (pending 5th-year option) on his rookie contract making him relatively cheap against the cap. A new team won’t have to consider his financial impact immediately but they will need to keep long-term implications in mind.
P2. Sorting Whose in and Who’s Out - Determining each team’s potential interest in Justin Fields.
2.1 - Teams committed to their QB for at least another season.
BAL - 2x MVP Lamar Jackson.
CIN - Joe Burrow.
CLE - Whether they like it or not the team’s fate is tied to at least three more years of DeShaun Watson.
BUF - Josh Allen.
HOU - CJ Stroud is coming off an amazing rookie season.
IND - 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson looked impressive in a small sample size.
TEN - There’s little reason to reshuffle your shot at QB in the early stages of a rebuild. Without a 3rd round pick this year I can’t see the Titans investing a third straight day two pick into another QB.
JAC - Even if you aren’t a Trevor Lawrence truther I can’t imagine Justin Fields is your answer.
KC - Patrick Mahomes.
LAC - Justin Herbert.
CHI - Duh.
DET - I almost put the Lions in the Wild Card territory but the vibes with Jared Goff are simply too strong and being in the same division kills any remaining chance.
GB - Jordan Love had an impressive season and I think Bears fans would burn the city down before they let Fields suit up for the Packers.
DAL - Dak Prescott is a franchise QB coming off a near MVP season.
PHI - At this time Jalen Hurts is a far more proven version of Justin Fields.
WAS - Unless they move out of the 2nd-overall pick then they’re locked into Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels.
CAR - It’s too early to give up on Bryce Young and putting Justin Fields in this offense would be a death sentence.
NO - They just committed a lot of money to Derek Carr and Fields is far too expensive to be a Taysom Hill upgrade.
AZ - The new regime seems to love Kyler Murray and moving on from him for Fields seems counterintuitive anyway.
SF - They passed on Fields for Trey Lance in the first place and that’s before we get to Brock Purdy.
With that we’ve firmly assumed at least 20/32 teams should have no interest in Justin Fields.
2.2 - Wild card teams that could make a surprise change, but probably not.
Los Angeles Rams As beloved as Matthew Stafford is, the hard reality is he’s aging (36) and has a long history with nagging injuries. If Sean McVay wants a relatively cheaper option to develop behind Stafford then Justin Fields provides a unique succession plan. However, Fields doesn’t seem to fit the mold of the McVay offense and I’d assume the Rams will be more aggressive about acquiring a QB once Stafford is done.
Miami Dolphins The Dolphins will be in a tough situation as the Tua contract extension conversation looms. At this time it doesn’t seem like Tua is worth high-end QB money but the team’s aggressive team building (trading for Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and Jalen Ramsey) may leave them with little choice but to give into his agent’s demands. This could be a frugal move but risky and not to mention a complete shift in QB identity.
Seattle Seahawks With a new de…
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