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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/sponsoredbycashapp on 2024-02-07 17:44:10.
For context, this years QBs are raked as follows on the CBB.
Caleb Williams - 1
Drake Maye - 3
Jayden Daniels - 4
JJ McCarthy - 26
Bo Nix - 33
Michael Penix Jr - 36
And here is a history on some fallers:
| Draft Year | Player | CBB Rank | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Will Levis | 10 | 33 |
| 2023 | Hendon Hooker | 33 | 68 |
| 2022 | Malik Willis | 14 | 86 |
| 2022 | Desmond Ridder | 33 | 74 |
| 2021 | Justin Fields | 4 | 11 |
| 2019 | Dwayne Haskins | 8 | 15 |
| 2019 | Drew Lock | 22 | 42 |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen | 4 | 10 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson | 18 | 32 |
Now, this means nothing without context, but the general trend I see is that unless you are a top guy, the actual draft position is quite volatile.
We have been assuming QBs will go 1, 2, 3 and a lot of folks think there is a chance all 6 go in the first, but history tells us this is going to play out quite a bit differently than expected.
Another interesting thing I saw is it’s very likely a QB ranked in the top 3 will go #1… but the next guys after that player are all over the map.
I do think it’s likely QBs go 1,2 but would not be surprised if the other 4 fall further than we think.