And then what?

Mongolia is fully landlocked and is a minor military power.

• They cannot get him out of the country to the ICC as neither Russia nor China would give them flight permissions. Russia for obvious reasons and China would surely not do it as well - as it would make travelling for Xi much more problematic, especially after what he plans with Taiwan.

• They cannot keep him there because the Russians, as military incapable as they are, would basically drive into UB and simply retrieve him. The Mongolian armed forces have a joint budget that is less than what a single CH-53K King Stallion costs. Their army is based on (hardly working) T54 and BMP1. Their airforce owns exactly two Mig29 Fighters (gift of Russia). And that does not even include the very real possibility that the Chinese do Vladimir a favour and get him - simply to make sure to keep the West occupied and shift the focus away from them and Taiwan again.

• If they keep him there and he dies…well…that would at least mean the end of the political ruling class of the country and could lead to the very real threat of large scale revenge by either Russia or Russia and China.

My personal prophecy for any scenario like that would be that a few thousand Mongolians die, around 300.000 end up in labour camps and Mongolia as a sovereign nation ceases to exist. Why? Mongolia exists mainly because two major powers “couldn’t be bothered” to conquer them, it would make them look bad and a buffer to a not that welcome neighbour is always welcome. If Mongolia fucks it up for one or both of them it basically looses that “reason” to exist in the eyes of both the Russians and the Chinese. And they would be “bad enough” in the light of a lot of countries as well as their own population that a “swift special military operation” is justified.