On non windy/solar days, output is 0. Unless the plan is to shut down on those days and huddle in the cold, renewable 100% won't work. Also in cases like a cold front that lasts a couple of weeks.
On non windy/solar days, output is 0. Unless the plan is to shut down on those days and huddle in the cold, renewable 100% won't work. Also in cases like a cold front that lasts a couple of weeks.
squashkin@wolfballs.com 2 years ago
batteries
also isn't wood renewable
goldenballs@wolfballs.com 2 years ago
Slowly... Wood isn't as energy dense as oil, but better than nothing. The reason why offshore wind is expanding is because you rarely have lack of wind at sea. Similarly, solar in space would be very effective. Tidal systems have a lot of potential. Trying to find nuclear fuel off earth would be a hood idea, because the chances of finding oil elsewhere in the Solar System are a bit slim.
iamtanmay@wolfballs.com 2 years ago
Batteries ARE the problem. Otherwise the world would be Green. Quick math:
USA uses 3.8 trillion kWh per year, divide by 365, 10.4 Billion kWh per day. Batteries like this one cost around 1200 Wh or 1.2 kWh (100Ah * 12V) for 130 Eur ( https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Electronicx-Caravan-battery-Camper-Supply/dp/B0885Q696N )
1 day of US's energy needs will need 10.4 Billion / 1.2 = 8.7 Billion batteries. Price, imagining a 50% discount for bulk, 8.7 * 65 = 566 Billion USD
Other hardware: AC/DC converters, cooling systems to prevent batteries from overheating etc, installation costs and skilled labour to run things, my estimation is 2x or 3x the amount, so 1 to 1.5 Trillion USD up front, and around 50 - 100 billion $ annual running costs.
But can you actually create so many batteries etc ? In 2020, global Lithium ion battery market was ~50 Billion. So, Global battery production is 10x less than what just the USA needs. It also means mining 10x the amount of rare earth metals like Lithium, which is limited and causes environmental damage.
Let's assume you manage to create the batteries and other hardware. Next problem is skilled electricians and other labor. There are 223,000 electricians in the USA in 2021. Assuming you need 1 electrician to install and maintain 10,000 batteries, you would need 870,000 additional electricians. That's more than 4x what the USA currently has. The price of electricians will increase 5x, since you have 5x demand now and only 1x the supply. If 500 Billion was the cost of the electricians for installation, expect that to 5x to 2.5 trillion, bringing the initial investment to 3.5 trillion USD and running costs to ~300 Billion (assuming 50 Billion initial salary for electricians annually).
Also, what would be the timeframe ? How long would it take to increase global production etc ? Hard to say. Extremely optimistically, I would say 10 years, but realistically, 30 years. Look at other big projects in the US, like high speed trains, space projects, etc and this figure is reasonable.
ALL OF THE ABOVE WAS FOR 1 DAY OF BATTERY STORAGE !!
If you haven't lost your head, remember we still have to talk about powering those batteries with Solar/Wind, the environmental and $ cost of covering up land with these tech, toxicity of chemicals used in production of these as well as waste/recycling. Its a difficult subject !
goldenballs@wolfballs.com 2 years ago
There are so many flaws with those overly simplistc calculations, it's hardly worth bothering going through it all. The conclusions are pseudoscientific.
squashkin@wolfballs.com 2 years ago
theyre working on battery tech: compressed air, gravity, kinetic (trains with weight up on tracks), in addition to the lithium and improvements on lithium
but yeah either ppl rely on nonrenewables until they arent available, they reduce consumption to renewable level, or improve renewable tech
iamtanmay@wolfballs.com 2 years ago
I am not saying there aren't technologies. Only commenting on the cost and timeline of implementation. Batteries can definitely be implemented, but if done in an economically practical way, take about 50 years. I did take into account that Lithium might be replaced - production lines for LiIon batteries are efficient and optimized over past 30 years, they would be scrapped and new tech would need similar time for efficient, mature production lines.
I am not sure about compressed air on large scales, but gravity is being used to pump water to high reservoirs. Again, all these tech are available. But the scale of implementing on a national/global scale requires planning for at least 50 years. Countries planning to do it by 2035, will bankrupt their citizenry with crazy taxes and prices, resulting in the Green politicians losing elections. Germany already has the highest energy prices, which have multiplied every year.