Comment on When you want to be Meta, but you just a Beta
iamtanmay@wolfballs.com 2 years agoYes, I understood that, but I don't believe it.
My counterargument:
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Covid supply chain issues started in 2020 in certain segments: lumber, construction material, semiconductors etc. But the sudden jump in price of everyday goods like meat, eggs, etc started later in 2021. Every product has a different supply chain. Across the board price increase would imply ALL supply chains are disrupted now, and not earlier in 2020. There is no evidence for this.
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Stimulus checks & huge govt bills dumped money into the economy. American Rescue plan 1.9 Trillion, Infrastructure 1.2 Trillion since start of 2021, on top of the Trump stimulus of 2020 during lockdowns.
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To attract workers, companies had to match stimulus checks. This increased low end wages, increasing salaries across the board, as those higher up also want a raise to match the increase.
Jump in wages means jump in labor costs ---> Price inflation from Subway to hairsalons. This is a classic Inflationary cycle, and the timing coincides with stimulus.
goldenballs@wolfballs.com 2 years ago
Taking your own argument, there are going to be niche-specific supply chains. So we know that strawberries won't be being flown into Scotland from Kenya, for example; nor will they be backed up in reefer ships off the coast of California.
What is common, is energy costs. Money is rather a proxy for energy. Oil price rises is an across the board price increase. We can say, LNG->Urea->Fertilizer->Food, over several months, but that same LNG rise goes into electricity generation, and oxygen for sterile food packing, as well as heating homes and cooking.
Stimulus/Furlough did have an impact, but it dissipates quickly. Data showed mass pay off of credit card debt, then a return to spending. Data also shows savings spent, prior to credit card debt returning. I don't know how much, if much at all of that recovery debt has actually been spent, and what on. They tried something similar in the EU, Japan has set course to maintain unsustainable rates, and the UK has basically changed course from the other reserve currency countries.
It seems that a lot of staff turnover was lowskilled service jobs. For high skilled, there is a dearth of suitably competent people that wage hikes can't fix. Wage hikes also cannot fix the port-lorry logistics bottleneck that well, if the real hold up is stupid restrictive policies.
I work offshore and in APAC. There's no shortage of work, but stupid policies and skills barriers to entry are creating the staff shortages. I see first hand the shipping logistics problems when crew changes can't happen, and ships can't sail. Its hilarious when politicians cite supply chain problems when they are the ones causing them with their stupid unscientific policies.
I am not going contend that supply chain is the only factor and that there is no moneyprinting, i think its a mix of these things, and the debate is over the level and impact of them. The collapse of China, Japan, EU, is certainly deflationary long-term. The burden of excessive debt creates stagflation, where asset-holders don't want to take a haircut, and workers face declining economic activity. As loans seize up, money ceases to be created or move, and the velocity of money is at a floor not seen since 1946. I think we have something more like stagflation conditions, rather than inflation.
iamtanmay@wolfballs.com 2 years ago
Countries started hoarding fertilizer since end of last year and several plants in Europe shut down. Seems to be related to price of natural gas in Europe, but reasons were not clear as of January. Food price hikes from fertilizer shortage will likely come at the next harvest. So around Q3 maybe.
Correct. But wage increases for lowskilled staff won't dissipate immediately. The lag isn't clear. Till then those costs are passed to consumer.
Yes. But wage increases in lowskilled jobs affects everyday goods like groceries. Buying a new phone can be delayed, but you can't delay buying food.
I think you are likely correct that this inflation is temporary..... but what kind of knock on effects and feedback loops will happen ? Let's hope it settles down.