There are some links there but the reason I highlighted that is because there are some short term climate impacts (like the heatwaves we’ve just experienced) and recent wars that my point is less true of.

Maybe the best way to explain this month-to-month point is to ask what your explanation is for the previous month’s figures. Back then we had almost the same amount of pressure on cost of living, right? (And, to a slightly lesser extent, almost the same pressure from climate change and war). So, if those things all lead to negative monthly growth figures, we should have had that in the previous month, surely. But we don’t.

My explanation for this is that we have basically already seen most of the negative economic impacts (at least in terms of growth figures) from most of the causes you’re talking about, and it’s only the most recent changes to cost of living that are biting now.