The moon is too close and I don't think it will ever be self sustaining. Any attempt to rebel and they get starved out. The more likely thing is they defect to some other country that starts supplying them. (This is still highly unlikely). I don't think people will live on the moon long enough to try that - they may spend a year there and someone will have a baby there, but they will all go home to earth.

Mars could potentially support a self sustaining outpost large enough to rebel. Mars is also far enough away that it wouldn't be worth attacking. They will likely be let go as soon as they are self sustaining because earth will be bored by then and glad to not support them. Unlike the moon, going back home is a long trip so people will try to avoid it.