Automatic transcript

Our national cabinet will meet for a second time next week as pressures grow on fuel supplies with the effects spreading way beyond the bowser. It’s also raised more questions about not only Australia’s ability to fend for itself when it comes to sovereign capability, but also when it comes to security. And for more on this, we’re joined by the former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who has of course been speaking publicly about these issues for some time. Malcolm, welcome back to News Breakfast.

Yeah, great to be with you. Now, we’ll get to some of the domestic issues in a moment, but I just wanted to take you to what’s happened overnight. Donald Trump has again criticized allies, including Australia, saying Australia has not been great regarding his war in Iran. How do you think the government should be responding to these kind of criticisms? Well, look, the government’s probably going to let it go through to the keeper, but because they don’t want to get into a, you know, a verbal slanging match with Donald Trump, but they’ve been absolutely right, as have other allies, in not getting involved. Um, you know, the that for a start, they weren’t consulted. This is a war that Israel and America chose to start. They didn’t have to do it. They’ve started it and the consequences have been enormous for the whole world. But remember this, the Iranian tactic, they are the weaker party is to horizontally escalate the conflict. So that’s why they’re bringing in other countries, attacking their Gulf neighbors, attacking their assets, their economic uh infrastructure, and so forth. If more countries get involved, all that does is increase the horizontal escalation, right? And and that’s what the Iranians want because what they’re doing is from a position of great weakness, they’re increasing the cost of the war to Trump and putting him in the position where he may have to put boots on the ground. Now, once he does that, of course, there will be American casualties. Uh the implications for that for him in his domestic politics are massive. I mean, this is a guy who ran for president on the promise that there would be no more wars. He was the m, you know, huge critic of the Iraq war in 2003. And he’s, you know, absolutely slammed America’s endless wars in the Middle East. The people closest to him, like JD Vance, like Elbridge Colby on national security are absolutely opposed to this war. So he’s dividing his own political party. And so if the Iranians keep raising the cost of this war, they’re really undermining uh Trump where he is most vulnerable, which is in the domestic American political environment. There has been this speculation that some sort of ceasefire can be done. It’s difficult to say how close that is. Donald Trump is saying Iran wants a deal. Iran says at the moment it doesn’t. And there’s been a lot of back and forth. If some sort of agreement can be reached around the straight of Hormuz, do you think Australia should be playing any role at all in keeping it secure? Well, Australia’s offered with other allied countries to play a role once uh you know, the war the conflict is stopped. And I mean that that would make sense, I guess. Uh but you know, you’ve really got to ask yourself how poss you know, how is it possible to have a uh a negotiated settlement to this war in circumstances where Trump has twice attacked Iran in the course of negotiating with Iran, right? Uh so the I mean he is not he is not he is a leader who believes and makes no bones about it that might is right. So the Iranians would need an enormous amount of reassurance uh to you know agree to any ceasefire and so I mean there will be people in America and certainly in Israel that will be saying to Trump the only way to deal with this is to absolutely flatten the Iranians and that means sending the you know forces into Iran boots on the ground but then you’ve got you know Iraq potentially uh a second Iraq war but one with a much bigger and more complex and more united country. You’ve been talking for a long time now and saying that Australia should have more independent foreign policy, especially when it comes to the Orcus deal, which you’ve been clear you think is a dud. I think some viewers might agree with you this morning, some won’t. But if we were to get rid of Orcus, what should Australia be spending money on, do you think, to become more independent, to defend itself if we we were to go down this path? Well, we should be spending money on capabilities that are sovereign. I mean, sovereignty matters. I mean, that the tragedy of Orcus is that it it made us vastly more dependent on the United States at a time when the United States was becoming vastly less dependable. And you know, I had a conference having a conference today in Canra with David Kilkullen. Uh it’s similar format to the one I held last year on this point, sovereignty and security. I mean, we our parliament is is basically gaslighting the Australian people because we’re not hearing our political leaders talking about these issues of sovereignty and our security other than with sort of, you know, bland asurances that Orcus will be the solution. I mean, the reality is we are very unlikely to get any submarines at all. We’re very unlike and we’re certain not to get them for many, many years. uh you know for well into the next decade at the earliest and so we should be buying and capabilities whether they are submarines that we build ourselves such as the ones we are working on with France or other longrange strike capabilities that enable us to defend Australia ourselves. I mean sovereignty matters. I mean the tragedy of Orcus and you know frankly much of our uh national security policy since the Morrison government has been a constant sacrifice of sovereignty for the sake of security. But in reality we’re going to end up losing both. So we have to be able to stand on our own two feet. I mean this is if ever there’s one me you know message that comes out of this these events at the moment it is sovereignty self-resilience independence patriotism we’ve got to get off our knees >> yes and we should just point out we had the defense minister Richard Miles on the show earlier he has repeatedly said he’s confident that we will get the submarines but no doubt that debate will continue just before I let you go >> he keeps he keeps saying that but there is no basis in fact for him for his confidence >> okay uh just finally before I let you go One Nation outpold the Liberal Party in South Australia at the weekend. When you look at the landscape at the moment of Australian politics, do you think the Federal Liberal Party can ward off the threat of Pauline Hansen and Barnaby Joyce? Well, they can do so, but they’ve got to get back to the center. They’ve got to start to they’ve got to start sounding like the Liberal Party ought to be sounding, which this is talking about the economy, talking about tax, talking about productivity. I mean, the Liberal Party’s great strength, really, its only real comparative strength is on economic management. And unless they’re focused on those issues as opposed to the cultural war issues that fire up the audience who audiences who watch Sky News and read the Murdoch press, if they focus on the economy, then people will start listening to them. Again, Australian politics is determined at the center. And unfortunately at the moment and this is unfortunate for everyone because we need a viable opposition uh the only major political party that is operating at the center of Australian politics is the Labor Party. You know the Liberal Party has become like a national party light chasing One Nation down that right-wing populist burrow and all they’re doing by doing that is enhancing the credibility of One Nation. I mean it’s a it is a terrible abdication of responsibility to be a viable electable opposition. Malcolm Turnbull, thanks for joining News Breakfast today. Thank you.