Lots of people say oil. Even Trump himself says it’s about the oil. Since Trump says oil it’s a good bet, it’s got nothing to do with oil. Remember Trump just says what he wants people to think, he doesn’t care about the truth. And Maduro already promised Trump all the oil he wants at whatever price he wants. So it’s not oil.

I’ve heard a hypothesis suggesting that it’s being pushed by Marko Rubio and a contingent of Cuban Americans (mostly in Florida), who’ve wanted to take down the Cuban government for decades. They view Venezuela as a stepping stone, proof of concept in that direction. It’s a test. A test of both what we can do, and how the world will react. If it goes well, Cuba will be next soon.

That idea sounds actually plausible to me.