Allegedly Google, early in this craze:

“We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

semianalysis.com/…/google-we-have-no-moat-and-nei…

Ultimately the dotcom fantasy kind of panned out. A few tech companies have massive control over society now, with what is essentially cloud/internet business. They have a moat.

…But with the AI bubble, I think folks are underestimating how fast and low the “race to the bottom” is.

As random examples:

• Look at something like Nemotron 4B, which makes a lot of mundane ‘AI’ data processing people assumed to be big and power hungry (with these data centers) basically free: huggingface.co/jet-ai/Jet-Nemotron-4B

• Look at GLM 4.6. I can run it on my Ryzen/3090 desktop, for free, and for the first time, I feel like it’s beating Claude and Gemini in some stuff, at 7 tokens/sec.

And all this is accelerating. Alternate attention is catching on, bitnet is already proven and probably next.

In other words, AI as a “dumb tool” is rapidly approaching “basically free to run locally on your phone,” and you don’t need all these megacorp data centers for that. There’s no profit in it.