brisk@aussie.zone 2 days ago
The original 2011 estimates for the scheme were that the NDIS would cover 411,000 participants and cost $13.6 billion per year. Today there are more than 740,000 participants, and it’s forecast to cost $64 billion by 2029.
The government has set a target to reduce annual growth of the scheme from 22% a year to 8% by next year. However Butler described this as only an interim measure, noting growth needed to be further restricted.
It’s hard not to be cynical about statements like this. The critically needed support they started providing is far more needed than anticipated, therefore they must scale it back?
Children aged under 15 years are over-represented in the scheme, making up just under half of NDIS participants. Half of new entrants are under nine. Across the country, one in ten six-year-olds is on the NDIS.
Butler emphasised families were not to blame. Rather, the issue is the lack of alternative support systems. The NDIS Review highlighted this gap and recommended the development of foundational supports: services for people with disability that sit outside the NDIS.
I’m struggling to see how this helps the budget that they seem to be worried about, rather than just shifting costs around.
hitmyspot@aussie.zone 2 days ago
The cost blowouts with the ndis aren’t just ramping up care. Due to the massive increase in funds available, demand increased significantly. So prices rose on lots of stuff. Those in allied therapies are charging hourly rates in the 100s of dollars, where previously, their hourly rate was 60-80. There is a private style system but public style demand. This is less efficient.
Think of going to a public hospital out patient, with lots of waiting and queuing, versus a therapist charging for an hour, having no admin support (why bother as it’s just a cost), so all admin (eg payments, booking appointments )are done during appointment time, billed to ndis. In a hospital, all that is passed off to admin workers while the therapists just see more patients, at a lower hourly rate. Then look at equipment, sometimes costing thousands. Hospitals have it as a shared resource. Private therapists have it now too, but it’s used less frequently and so less efficient from a cost point of view.
The whole point of the scheme is great, but we don’t suddenly have a whole bunch of extra qualified staff. So, to encourage staff, qualified or not, prices went up. Then you have people, who are desperate, willing to pay anything, and then suddenly having a blank cheque. This should normalise over time, partly from a,rhetorical forces, partly from trying to rein in spending, like this.
This is before you even consider inflation was over 25% combine over the last few years, with double the participants. Add on the inefficiancy of rapid ramp up. Look at employment in government and non government spending over the last 3 years. It’s concerning for the economy in general.