I lean towards 20-30 years if ever for AGI, but that assumes the world doesn’t fall apart from climate collapse before then. Severity and frequency of once in a lifetime weather calamities has increased dramatically. Over one week this year, the USA had 4 separate once in a thousand year flooding events. And there’s no reason to think that this will decrease.

I think the struggle to survive and recover from disasters and maintain food and energy production will impede major development in this area.