I feel like Reform are more likely to split the conservative vote than Jeremy Corbyn is likely to split the Labour vote. Mostly because the left has a very complicated relationship with him, he’s truly awful at being a politician.

Meanwhile Farage is a good politician, he’s good at playing up to a crowd, he’s good at taking advantage of controversy.

Also of course signing up to the party newsletter doesn’t mean that you’ll vote for them when the time comes. A lot will be doing it to try and send a message to labour. I’ve signed up to the newsletter but I’m not particularly inclined to actually vote for them. Not unless labour gets substantially worse.