How many potential military men are there in Russia?

140 million people? Half male? Half of that the right age? 70% of that military capable? What are we at? 25 million?

Minus the million he has burned so far I guess.

How quickly or effectively could those 24 million be mobilized?

Remember too that pulling these men into the military reduces Russia’s industrial output which also has military consequences.

How big is the Russian military right now? 1.5 million active and maybe a million contract? That allows them to deploy how many in theatre (as opposed to defence and operations at home)? 500,000 maybe?

Can Putin take Europe with a pool of 20 million men where maybe 20% that number are active at a time? He seems to be having quite a time taking Ukraine.

The Russian population gets older every day. There is an excellent argument to be made that Putin attacked when he did because his draft pool will be way too small in 10 years. By that logic, unless Putin wins convincingly in Ukraine soon, it will be generations before he has a large enough army to raise any credible challenge to Europe.

Equipment wise, I do not think they are even keeping inventory constant. The number of planes, tanks, ships, and missiles goes down every day. They are maybe increasing their capability with drones.

Overall, Russia will be older, smaller, poorer, and less well equipped in 4 years.

Defeating Russia in Ukraine means taking Russia off the board for the foreseeable future (nukes aside).