spiffmeister@aussie.zone 3 weeks ago
This is the analysis of a partisan, last year the electorate boundaries were redrawn and Antony Green was already saying it would be harder for Bandt
In the north loses Clifton Hill to Cooper and Brunswick East, Carlton North and Fitzroy North to Wills. Crosses the Yarra to take in South Yarra and Prahran from Macnamara and Higgins.
The Green margin declines versus Labor because strong Green voting areas in the north of the old Melbourne have been replaced by parts of Higgins where the Liberal vote was higher in 2022. On primary votes the Green vote slips from 49.6% to 44.7%, the Labor vote rises from 25.0% to 25.7%, and the Liberal vote rises from 15.2% to 19.6%. It is possible that with Adam Bandt as the candidate, and a less intense local campiagn by Labor in areas previously in Higgins, could help restore Bandt’s margin.